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NY Post
New York Post
16 Jun 2023


NextImg:What are the smartest, most valuable one-year contracts in baseball?

There is a saying in baseball that has become epidemic over time:

“There is no such thing as a bad one-year contract.”

Well, in the case of, say, the Dodgers with Noah Syndergaard (one-year, $13 million), I guess it falls into the good news category that there is not a second year. But his 7.16 ERA in 12 starts before heading to the injured list with a blister was pretty damaging even if the financial obligation for Los Angeles will end at the conclusion of the season.

“Awards Watch” this week got me thinking about the opposite — the one-year contracts that do not have to be justified only because they are one year. In this case, we are focusing on the best one-season deals.

Now, not all one-year accords are created equal. Some players, such as Syndergaard, receive nice outlays for a season. Others, such as Aroldis Chapman ($3.75 million), are trying to re-establish themselves after down campaigns. And there are others who have to take no guaranteed major league money on minor league contracts.

So, why don’t we break this down into categories as we get nearer and nearer to the midpoint of these one-year contracts? This will not include players such as Cody Bellinger or Michael Conforto, who signed two-year contracts that include an option in Year 2.

Let’s begin at the top:

Best one-year contract for $15 million or more — Clayton Kershaw, $20 million, Dodgers

In pitching himself into the Cy Young conversation, Clayton Kershaw has been a relative bargain for the Dodgers.
USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Kershaw became even more important with Syndergaard bombing and then going on the IL, where he joined Julio Urias and Dustin May. Tony Gonsolin, since returning from the IL, and rookie Bobby MIller, in his first four starts, have both pitched well.

But Kershaw, at 35, actually is in the conversation for a fourth Cy Young award — though the chances of his chronic back condition holding up to allow him to not need a physical pit stop this year is not great. Kershaw, as he’s been for so many years with the Dodgers, is the sturdy, superb force of the rotation. He is 8-4 with a 2.95 ERA in 14 starts.

I will say this: If Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are worth two-year, $86.67 million pacts so late in their brilliant careers, then Kershaw is a steal at one-year, $20 million. I would argue his history, in general, and his history with the Dodgers, specifically, really should have made him worth double what he agreed to for one year.

Honorable mention: Joc Pederson, a former teammate of Kershaw’s, accepted the $19.65 million qualifying offer to stay with the Giants and has a .923 OPS.

Best one-year contract for between $10 million and $14.9 million — J.D. Martinez, $10 million, Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers' J.D. Martinez runs the basses after hitting a two-run home run off Philadelphia Phillies' Jeff Hoffman during the seventh inning of a baseball game, Saturday, June 10, 2023, in Philadelphia.

Seemingly fading with Boston last season, J.D. Martinez has been productive for the Dodgers this year.
AP

Martinez’s effectiveness was slowly waning in Boston. But he is hitting like vintage Martinez as the Dodgers DH — 16 homers, an .894 OPS, a .347 average and 1.128 OPS with runners in scoring position. Perhaps Martinez’s greatest impact on this season, though, is he hit the ball at Dodger Stadium on June 3 that Aaron Judge caught with the sensational grab running into the right field wall, leading to a right big toe injury that will cost him weeks of play.

Honorable mention: Where would the Mets be without their $10 million investment in David Robertson? Kyle Gibson ($10 million) has been a steadying veteran in the Orioles rotation. And Craig Kimbrel ($10 million) doesn’t have a pretty ERA (4.67), but has struck out 42 in 27 innings out of the Phillies pen.

Best one-year contract for between $7.5 million and $9.9 million — Kevin Kiermaier, $9 million, Blue Jays

Toronto signed one-year, free-agent pacts with Kiermaier and Brandon Belt ($9.3 million) to add lefty lineup diversity and, in the case of Kiermaier, improve the defense. Mission accomplished, though Belt is currently on the injured list.

Kiermaier, as always, has been a shutdown center fielder. Just this year, he has hit .287 with an .806 OPS to date.

Honorable mention: Rich Hill ($8 million) is third on the Pirates in innings pitched (72 ⅓) and has an ERA-plus of 104 despite being the oldest pitcher in the game at 43.

Best one-year contract for between $5 million and $7.49 million — Andrew McCutchen, $5 million, Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen heads to first and celebrates his leadoff home run off Chicago Cubs pitcher Drew Smyly during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 14, 2023, in Chicago.

Andrew McCutchen’s return to Pittsburgh has thrilled Pirates fans happy to see a franchise great leading a surprisingly competitive team.
AP

This is a “you can go home again” story. One of the best players in franchise history has returned for his age-36 season, and has nine homers, seven steals and an .817 OPS. He recently reached 2,000 career hits, and the love shown by the fans made the return even more powerful.

Honorable mention: Jeimar Candelario ($5 million) has been a strong signing by the Nationals after being designated for assignment by the Tigers. The switch-hitting third baseman could be in play for a contender at the trade deadline.

Best one-year contract under $4.9 million — Chapman, $3.75 million, Royals

I will believe that a contender will trade for Chapman and his problematic past plus his nearly six walks per nine innings even in a strong season when I see it. But the idea by Kansas City was to bring him in and try to revive his career and then trade him. Chapman is back averaging 99.7 mph with this fastball, so some team is probably going to try to land him.

This free-agent salary area is often for veteran relievers, and the honorable mentions are stocked with them: Jesse Chavez (Braves), Will Smith (Rangers), Brad Hand (Rockies), Miguel Castro (Diamondbacks) and Shelby Miller (Dodgers).

Best non-guaranteed contract — Nick Anderson, Braves

Nick Anderson #61 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park on April 11, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia.

At a cost of $875,000, Nick Anderson helped stabilize a Braves bullpen that started the year without closer Raisel Iglesias.
Getty Images

Once a stalwart of Tampa Bay’s pen, Anderson missed all of last season following elbow surgery. The Mets and Royals were strongly pursuing him in the offseason, but Atlanta acted more decisively and got him on a split contract that guaranteed him $875,000 if Anderson made the majors. He wasn’t going to at the beginning of the year, but when Braves closer Raisel Iglesias was hurt, Anderson got the call. And he has been a big component of a first-place team.

Honorable mentions: Ian Hamilton (Yankees), Jason Heyward (Dodgers) and Chris Devenski (Angels).

Best in-season free agent signings — Aaron Hicks, Orioles and Gary Sanchez, Padres

The Yankees cut Hicks with roughly $30 million owed for two-plus seasons; the Orioles signed the switch-hitter, who appears reborn away from The Bronx. In his first 13 games with Baltimore, Hicks hit .333 with five extra-base hits and as many walks (8) as strikeouts.

Sanchez was signed by the Giants to a minor league deal and never made it to their major league roster. He played three games with the Mets. The Padres, with the worst-hitting catchers in the majors (.161 average, three homers), decided to take a shot. And in his first 14 games with San Diego, Sanchez had hit six homers.

Giancarlo Stanton has four seasons left on his contract beyond this one and needs 116 homers to reach 500. It might be quite a race to see if he can reach that milestone before the pact expires.

When he plays even close to regularly, Stanton hits 30-plus homers. This despite missing time to injury annually and also going through hitting lulls during which it feels like no player swings and misses a pitch by more.

New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (27) solo home run during the first inning when the New York Mets played the New York Yankees Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at Citi Field in Queens, NY.

Reaching the 500-home run mark before the end of his Yankees contract isn’t out of the question for Giancarlo Stanton despite his injury issues.
Robert Sabo for NY Post

Stanton, after this season, will be owed four years at $128 million. But Miami is responsible for $30 million of that as a stipulation of trading him to the Yankees after the 2017 campaign. That brings the Yankees’ obligation down to $98 million for 2024-27. (There is a 2028 club option for $25 million that I assume will be rejected.)

So you can actually argue that there are four races ongoing simultaneously: Can Stanton get to 500 homers? Can he do it before the life of his current 13-year, $325 million pact concludes? Will he serve out the rest of this contract with the Yankees? And, if not, will he be released at some point in the future or accept a trade?

The Yankees are one of those teams who will be associated this coming offseason with free agent Shohei Ohtani. What likely will make Ohtani the first $50 million-plus-per-year player is that he is a starting pitcher and a designated hitter. There seems little doubt that if Ohtani did not pitch, he would be a very good outfielder. But when he is not pitching (aside from a total of 8 ⅓ outfield innings in his career), Ohtani is a designated hitter.

How would the Yankees fit Ohtani with Stanton on the roster? First, let’s deal with the irony. The only reason Stanton is a Yankee is that Ohtani shunned the club in the 2017-18 offseason. The Yankees quickly pivoted to Stanton. Now the presence of Stanton, at minimum, creates complications for any Yankees pursuit.

Aaron Boone has said he believes Stanton is a better player when he also plays the outfield. But even in the ideal situation, how often could Stanton play the outfield? Twice a week? When you watch Stanton run the bases these days, he is doing it in a modulated way to try to avoid injury. Can you really play the outfield that way?

Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani bats during the first inning against the Texas Rangers in a baseball game Wednesday, June 14, 2023, in Arlington, Texas.

Fitting Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton into the same lineup on a regular basis would be complicated if the Yankees pursued the Angels superstar.
AP

Plus, Stanton turns 34 in November. His strained left hamstring this year marked the fifth straight season he has been placed on the injured list. As a Yankee, he has been on the IL eight times, seven for leg issues.

In theory, the Yankees could sign Ohtani and Stanton could DH on the day Ohtani starts and play the outfield otherwise and everyone could just wait for the inevitable injury to unbundle the situation.

Would any team take Stanton in a trade if the Yankees either took a counterbalancing contract or ate some money? Would Stanton waive his no-trade clause and even accept a deal out of New York (I would put that at doubtful). These are offseason matters for the Yankees.

But I detail the chase for 500 and the injuries as a way to frame Stanton’s career. He is someone you could have thought of not long ago as on a Hall of Fame trajectory. In 2014, in his age-24 season, Stanton led the NL in homers as a Marlin and finished second for the NL MVP. In 2017, he hit an MLB-best 59 homers and won the MVP.

His 267 homers to that point were the ninth-most ever through a player’s age-27 season. It still is nestled between Hall of Famers Mel Ott (275 homers) and Frank Robinson (262). His OPS-plus was 147 — tied for 18th-best through age-27 with Barry Bonds (minimum 4,000 plate appearances).

Consider the company. So to play this week’s “Whose career do you got?”, I was looking for someone who was on a similar Cooperstown path and then was diverted.

So how about another right fielder who through his age-27 season had just 192 fewer plate appearances than Stanton while amassing 215 homers and a 146 OPS-plus. This player had a second-place MVP finish and a sixth, plus six All-Star appearances through age-27 and seemed on the way to a plaque.

Darryl Strawberry #18 of the New York Mets bats against the Houston Astros during a Major League Baseball game circa 1986 at Shea Stadium in the Queens borough of New York City. Strawberry played for the Mets from 1983-90.

Though personal demons likely short-circuited his chance to reach Cooperstown, Darryl Strawberry’s role in bringing four championships to New York has made him a beloved figure.
Getty Images

That is Darryl Strawberry, who, if you care about such things, I saw at Citi Field on Wednesday night. He sounded and looked great.

Through his age-27 season, Strawberry had a slash line of .260/.358/.520 and 30.3 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference) in 957 games. Stanton, through his age-27 season, had a slash line of .268/.360/.554 and 35.7 WAR in 986 games.

Strawberry had two more brilliant seasons at ages 28 and 29 before his addiction issues and injuries led to him never having more than 345 season plate appearances in his 30s. He did turn into a valuable presence and power source for the 1996, ’98 and ’99 champion Yankees. Combined with his place on the 1986 Mets, Strawberry was a four-time champion.

In 145 postseason plate appearances, Strawberry had a .254/.345/.500 slash line with nine homers.

Stanton has zero championships, but in 110 playoff plate appearances, he has a slash line of .260/.327/.635 with 11 homers.

Strawberry wound up his career with 335 homers, 221 steals and 42.2 WAR in 6,326 plate appearances. Stanton finished Wednesday at those 384 homers, 42 steals and 44.9 WAR in 6,110 plate appearances (and counting) …

Stanton still might end up with 500 homers. If so, would any significant voting bloc still see him as a Hall of Famer considering how disjointed the back end of his career has been? Even at 500 homers would you say he had a better career than Strawberry?

When the Marlins selected the contract of reliever Archie Bradley on Tuesday and he pitched that night, it meant that the sixth pick of the 2011 draft (Anthony Rendon), seventh (Bradley), eighth (Francisco Lindor) and ninth (Javier Baez) had appeared in the majors this season.

But the No. 2 through No. 5 picks from that draft have not played even an inning.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars pitcher Trevor Bauer delivers a pitch against Hiroshima Carp during a baseball game in Yokohama, near Tokyo, Wednesday, May 3, 2023. After cheerleaders welcomed him, after receiving the largest ovation of any Yokohama player at the start of the game, Bauer delivered what was expected on Wednesday in his debut with the Yokohama DeNA Baystars.

Trevor Bauer is pitching in Japan after being accused of multiple sexual assaults.
AP

The first pick was Gerrit Cole by the Pirates. The Mariners took lefty Danny Hultzen second. Beset mainly by shoulder injuries, Hultzen did not make his MLB debut until 2019 as a Cub. He appeared in six games that year and never pitched in the majors again.

The Diamondbacks took Trevor Bauer third off the same UCLA pitching staff as Cole. Bauer won the NL Cy Young Award during the shortened pandemic 2020 season. The Mets offered Bauer three years at $105 million after that season, and thought they were on the brink of signing him. But it was the Dodgers who signed the righty to a three-year, $102 million pact despite concerns about harassing behavior toward women on social media.

On July 2, 2021 — during his first Dodgers season — Bauer was placed on administrative leave amid an investigation of sexual assault. He has not pitched in the majors since, and may never again. He was suspended, ultimately reinstated and eventually released by the Dodgers, who are paying the last of his salary this year. Bauer signed to pitch for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars this year. In the past week, a fourth woman accused Bauer of sexual assault, this time in Arizona. Bauer countersued, claiming fraud.

The Orioles took Dylan Bundy with the fourth pick. Bundy finished ninth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2020 as an Angel. Over the next two seasons, Bundy had a 5.35 ERA in 52 games (48 starts) for the Angels and Twins. He signed a minor league contract this spring with the Mets and GM Billy Eppler, who had signed Bundy for the Angels when he was GM there. Bundy had a 10.08 ERA in six Triple-A starts, and also was suspended for 10 games after being ejected from a game for use of an illegal sticky substance.

Bubba Starling #11 of the Kansas City Royals during a game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on September 16, 2020, in Detroit, Michigan.

Picked No. 5 overall in 2011, Bubba Starling managed to make it into just 91 games for the Royals, in which he batted .204.
Getty Images

With the fifth pick, the Royals selected Bubba Starling, who was a multi-sport, prep sensation who grew up about 35 miles from their stadium. But Starling could never translate the athleticism to baseball success — there was just too much swing and miss in his game. So he didn’t make it to the Royals until 2019, and between that season and 2020, the outfielder played 91 games and hit .204. He announced his retirement in Oct. 2021.

The Yankees are low-keying it because they know it is far away and there are many hurdles to clear between now and then, but they have not given up on the idea of having Luis Gil (Tommy John surgery) or Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery) available at some point in the second half.

They may only be as relief options or hybrid starter types. But the Yankees have not closed the door on either.