Human nature can be a difficult opponent — the old facts versus feelings dilemma.
Sometimes they feel strongly about one thing. Then they see something that reinforces that one thing. When that happens, it can become easy to ignore all types of other things that conflict with that one-thing belief. It is a tough truth to untangle when the evidence doesn’t all point to the same conclusion.
Belief: The Jaguars’ offense is going to produce for fantasy.
Reinforcement: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence all turned in strong Week 1 games, so our Jags presumptions were correct.
Conflict: The past three weeks.
Conclusion: Feel free to bench Lawrence until he starts posting consistent numbers, but the Madman still thinks that will happen.
When it comes to Etienne and Ridley, chances are you don’t have bench options who are better, even at these lowered standards. They remain fine Flex plays.
Sometimes, you can believe one thing strongly, then see so much overwhelming evidence to dispel this notion that you have to adjust your belief. Yet, a new conflict emerges that conflicts with this adjustment and reinforces the original belief. How do you internally reconcile this new information?
Belief: The Bears‘ offense is going to produce for fantasy.
Conflict: Justin Fields, DJ Moore and the Chicago offense were laughably bad the first three games.
Belated reinforcement: The Bears were who we originally thought they were in Week 4 against the Broncos.
Conclusion: At this point, the one good game was the anomaly, not the three bad ones. Taking this as our new belief, it is reinforced by the fact the one good game came against a defense that a week before gave up a historic 70 points.
Keep your primary Bears on the bench. But don’t drop Khalil Herbert yet. We still have faith one of our beliefs — he will become the primary Bears RB — can come true. And even if his efficiency isn’t what we envisioned, the volume still could be.
Sometimes, there are reams of historical evidence to support a belief. Then evidence starts rising to challenge that long-held belief. At what point do you have to shift your mental paradigm?
Belief: The Bengals are good.
History: The Bengals have been good.
New evidence: The Bengals are not good.
Conclusion: It could be Joe Burrow’s calf. It could be an offensive line, thought to be fixed, has not been fixed. It could be apathy by the players themselves. It could be one of these, some combination of one or all, or none of these and something completely different.
It is hard to identify a specific catalyst, but it is easy to identify the utter badness. And the latest dud came against one of the league’s worst fantasy pass defenses.
They’ve been too good for too long, though. Don’t cut these guys, just bench them — except for Ja’Marr Chase, he stays in our lineups.
Overall conclusion: Try to keep your scales for fantasy justice weighed properly based on all the evidence.
C.J. Stroud QB, Texans
If you’re in a league where he is available, this should be the final waiver period when you have a chance to get him.
David Montgomery RB, Lions
It is clear he is going to be the workhorse, and Jahmyr Gibbs a change-of-pace/third-down option. Start Montgomery every week, or perhaps see if a trade could yield a hearty return.
Michael Wilson WR, Cardinals
He has gone over 50 yards three straight weeks and scored twice Sunday. Would normally write Week 4 off as one-hit wonder, but this Cardinals offense isn’t the train wreck initially expected.
Jameson Williams WR, Lions
His six-game gambling ban was reduced to four last week, so he is eligible to return in Week 5. Don’t expect an immediate impact, but he should become a weekly fantasy option on an explosive offense in the coming weeks.
Isiah Pacheco RB, Chiefs
He has exactly one 20-plus PPR outing in his career — Sunday against the Jets. Chiefs’ backfield remains crowded, and one guy unlikely to dominate consistently. He remains trade bait or a bye-week filler.
Brandon Aiyuk WR, 49ers
We’re playing the odds here: 49ers have too many weapons for Aiyuk to maintain this level of production. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle won’t be ignored every week. Shop Aiyuk based on his hot start.
Nico Collins WR, Texans
Two monster games and just one dud in four games, what’s not to like? We expect more Tank Dell weeks than we do Collins weeks. Gauge trade interest while Collins’ value is at peak.
Kyle Pitts TE, Falcons
The thing we don’t believe is that Jonnu Smith went 6-for-95 Sunday and Pitts just 2-for-21. But based on Pitts’ career usage/production in now his third season, there’s no reason for hope. Feel free to cut him.