Player props remain my favorite style of week-to-week NFL wagering.
We head into Week 5 riding high after a strong outing in Week 4.
We went 4-2, achieving strong profits of 4.82 units, which brought our season-long record to 10-16 and a net profit of 1.43 units this year.
We’ve been profitable with our props every week except for Week 2, when we bizarrely went 0-8. That’s how it goes in this business.
We look to continue the strong results with more player props and best bets for Week 5.
Prior to the Buccaneers’ offense becoming the Bucky Irving Show, the Bucs were led by Rachaad White. But Sean Tucker began carving out a role last season, and he gets another bite of the apple on Sunday in a spot against a strong Seahawks defense.
Seattle is no joke when it comes to stopping the run, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry allowed (fifth best).
I expect Tucker to take control of this backfield from a rushing perspective, as the Buccaneers run the ball 28.3 times per game, the ninth-most in the NFL.
That figure includes teams that have a rushing quarterback, as the stat is led by the Bills and Eagles.
Tampa Bay does not have that luxury. I suspect that the Buccaneers will ride Tucker for portions of this game, especially if they get a lead.
Matthew Berry previously told me that the team quietly is in love with Tucker and that they believe he is a starter in this league. It’s Tucker time in T-Bay.
He previously ran for 136 yards last season against the Saints and has crossed 29.5 four other times in his career. Sunday profiles as the biggest workload he will get since last season, when White was injured.
Sue me, but I’m skeptical that the former Jet who was on the Cardinals practice squad will get into the teens in carries in an NFL game.
This line is so high because Carter basically said that he was starting this game, but I’m not so sure that will happen in reality.
Emari Demercado, who is usually a passing-down back, looked excellent last week and is a fair bet to lead the backfield this week.
When on the Jets, Carter didn’t exactly light the world on fire and was primarily a passing-down player in his own right.
This backfield isn’t worth looking for two passing-down running backs, and I still think Carter is on the outside looking in in terms of playing time.
The Buccaneers’ secondary is a shell of itself right now, and that should be music to the ears of fantasy owners and bettors of the standout third-year receiver from Ohio State.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba has looked like one of the best players in the NFL, according to the second-highest Pro Football Focus grade among any receiver in the NFL this year, behind only Puka Nacua.
The Buccaneers are without two starters in their secondary. Starting cornerback Jamel Dean has already been declared out, as well as safety Christian Izien.
It’s a tough spot for Tampa Bay as the Seahawks are among the best teams in the NFL right now, and Sam Darnold has been locked in on his top receiver.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.