The Gators pulled off a home upset of the Utes in last year’s Week 1 of the college football season, winning a 29-26 affair on a last-second, goal-line interception of Cam Rising.

Utah has revenge on its mind, but I’m doubtful it has the horses to take down Florida. 

As a betting man I recommend you bet on Florida immediately, as this line continues to tick down with every passing second.

Unfortunately, veteran Utah quarterback Cam Rising will likely be out for this Week 1 tilt. 

You may remember Rising tore his ACL in a Rose Bowl loss against Penn State last season. He still hasn’t fully recovered, and the Utah quarterback room is a mess behind him. 

Bryson Barnes will likely get the start for Utah. The walk-on junior was described as a “pig farmer” in Phil Steele’s preseason magazine, perhaps alluding to one of his past jobs.

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Barnes earned the backup job at Utah, so he’s no slouch.

He went 10 for 19 for 112 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown drive after relieving Rising in the Rose Bowl, which was admirable considering the circumstances. 

However, it’s not an exaggeration to say Barnes is a downgrade compared to Rising. He went 37 for 57 with four touchdowns and two interceptions in 10 appearances last season. 

Unfortunately, I think Barnes and Utah struggle against Florida’s new-look defense. 

The Gators are replacing a monster amount of production on defense, but I like that Billy Napier hired defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong from Southern Miss.

Those Golden Eagle defenses were good, ranking top-five nationally in tackles for loss and sacks. 

There are some high-level recruits on the Florida defense. The front seven will be the team’s strength behind returning tackle Desmond Watson, Memphis transfer tackle Cam Jackson and the highly touted recruit duo of edge Princely Umanmielen and linebacker Shemar James. 

At the minimum, the Gators should be able to neutralize Utah’s running game. 

If the Utes try to protect their quarterback behind a rush-heavy attack, Armstrong will be scheming against a one-dimensional offense.

If the Gators stuff Utah’s rush attack from the jump, that would put a lot of pressure on Barnes.

It’s also worth mentioning that Utah lost its top receiver tight end Dalton Kincaid, removing a potential safety blanket from Barnes’ cabinet. 

Florida is in for a tough day offensively. 

The Utes are loaded on the defensive side of the ball behind nine returning starters and the best front seven in the Pac-12, led by interior tackle Junior Tafuna. 

Meanwhile, the Gators are attempting to replace Anthony Richardson with Graham Mertz, arguably the biggest quarterback downgrade any Power Five team made this season. 

Mertz was horrific at Wisconsin, but it’s argued that Paul Chryst’s offense hamstrung him. Mertz is much better out of play-action sets, something the Badgers never do because of their wide-zone run scheme.

Napier and offensive coordinator Rob Sale run a ton of play-action, and the Gators boast a powerful running back duo in Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. 

Ultimately, I’m looking to fade Utah’s quarterback situation and I’m trusting that Florida’s new-look defense will stifle Barnes while Mertz generates explosive plays off play-action sets.

If my expected game script develops, the Gators could win this game outright. 

Either way, I’ll be taking the points with Florida at anything over a field goal. 

However, if this line continues to drop I may consider buying back on the Utes. I don’t expect this line to drop under a field goal, but I will consider the other side if it does.

Florida +5 (-110) at Bet365 | Play to +3.5 (-110)

Consider buy-back on Utah if the line drops to -2.5 (-110)