Trends are always tricky in sports betting. They are even trickier in the NBA playoffs as a series evolves and certain factors change that often create a domino effect.
Draymond Green has cashed the Under 4.5 assists proposition bet in each of the first five games between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets. He also has cashed Under 19.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
This has occurred despite Jimmy Butler missing most of Game 2 and all of Game 3 with an injury. Both props still cashed even when the Warriors changed their starting lineup for Games 4 and 5, inserting Buddy Hield to replace Moses Moody.
Usually these types of occurrences will change statistical production and thus the betting trends. However, the main reason for these props maintaining has remained unchanged.
It starts with Green’s offensive role against the Rockets defense, particularly how Houston defends superstar Steph Curry. Green is utilized more as a perimeter screener designed to release Curry from tight defense by Amen Thompson or Dillon Brooks. Green is one of the league’s smartest players, and he finds ways to unlock Curry with savvy screens.
Additionally, Green also leans on that intellect to initiate the offense with calculating passes that ultimately lead to baskets. The Warriors lead the series 3-2 and are -210 favorites to close it out Friday, yet Green has accumulated only 11 total assists in five games.
This has been so glaring that oddsmakers finally adjusted his assist prop from 4.5 to 3.5 for Game 6. I still lean Under but will pass on betting the new odds.
However, I still believe the combined prop is a worthwhile wager. Green’s rebounds are limited because of Houston’s massive height advantage. The 6-foot-6 forward has started at center all series and thus is averaging just 5.6 boards.
Green’s scoring has diminished and he is no longer the shooter he once was. He has not averaged double digits since the 2017-18 season. The ceiling is now way lower and he’s only averaging 6.4 points this series.
My record is 41-31-1 ATS in this Post sports section and I will add Green Under 19.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook) as my next play.
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.