It was only three years ago when Clark Lea was basically laughed out of the room for declaring that Vanderbilt would be the “best football program in the country.”
Nobody’s laughing anymore.
The Commodores were one of the best stories in college football in 2024, but they’ve proven that what they accomplished last season was no fluke.
No. 16 Vanderbilt is 5-0 on the season with one-sided wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina already on their C/V.
A win over Alabama on Saturday with College GameDay in town would establish Vandy as an SEC contender and put them firmly in the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
There are a lot of fun storylines to dive into this week, but Diego Pavia rolling into Tuscaloosa trying to upset Alabama for the second year in a row may be the best of the bunch.
Pavia and the Commodores lead the nation in points per game (50), rank second in yards per play (7.8), and are 11th in yards per game (498.8).
They’ve rolled every opponent in their way, including road games at Va Tech and South Carolina. There’s no doubting this team, coach, or quarterback anymore, at least in the big picture.
Vanderbilt is for real — they’re ranked 11th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ power rankings — and they’ve knocked off a slew of heavy hitters going back to last year. Even if they lose on the road to Alabama, there is every chance that Vandy is in the mix for a playoff spot in two months.
That said, this stylistic matchup should favor the Tide, and there are some signals that suggest Vandy’s offense will regress.
Alabama’s defense, along with every other unit, struggled in Week 1 against Florida State, but they’ve progressed with each passing week, and the Tide did a terrific job slowing down Georgia in a 27-24 victory on the road last weekend.
In previous years, this would be a classic letdown spot for the Tide, but they know they can’t take their foot off the pedal for Vanderbilt, which upset them when they were ranked No. 1 in the country in 2024.
But the key to this handicap is Ty Simpson.
While Pavia is one of the great characters in all of sports right now, Simpson has quietly begun to put up Heisman numbers, and he was sensational against Georgia.
He and his talented group of playmakers should have their way with a vulnerable Vanderbilt secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in opponents’ completion percentage.
This number has been on both sides of 10 throughout the week, so you can afford to wait to see if it dips back down as heartstrings get tugged towards Vandy, but even at -10.5, the value is with the home side.
The Play: Alabama -10.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.