The Golden State Valkyries have been this WNBA season’s biggest surprise, as well as a gift from the gambling gods.
The expansion team has a 7-7 record after entering the season with a win total of 8.5. That means they have to win just two of their final 30 games in order to cash the Over.
That is the very definition of outperforming expectations.
Another measure of that is the point spread.
Golden State is a league-best 10-4 against the spread (ATS). The spread is considered the great equalizer and thus teams usually have a record around .500.
The Valkyries chose the right players in the expansion draft, but I firmly believe the difference-maker is coach Natalie Nakase.
After being a three-year starter at UCLA, her coaching career included stops overseas and as an assistant in the NBA with the Clippers. Nakase also played a pivotal role in the Las Vegas Aces’ back-to-back championships as an assistant coach and they are now struggling without her.
The Valkyries host the Chicago Sky on Friday as 8.5-point favorites with a total of 156.5 points.
The situational spot also favors Golden State, which is coming off a rare loss. The Valkyries are 5-2 in their last seven games.
Meanwhile, Chicago just picked up a nice home win over the Los Angeles Sparks as an underdog, snapping its three-game skid.
The Sky are still among the league’s worst and have limited offensive capabilities since losing captain/point guard Courtney Vandersloot to a season-ending injury.
That has forced the Sky to play without a true point guard in the starting lineup and their offense often stalls. Nakase should be able to implement the ideal game plan and limit Chicago’s scoring even more.
The Valkyries already rank third in the WNBA by allowing opponents to shoot just 40.5% from the field.
I have a 51-43-1 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Golden State -8.5 points against Chicago (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.