Point spreads are designed to make any game seem interesting and bet-able, and that theory will be tested in the Conference USA on Wednesday.
UTEP and Sam Houston have a combined record of 1-11 and meet on national television. The Miners are 2.5-point road favorites against the winless Bearkats, with a total of 47.5 points.
Neither squad had high expectations, but they are still underperforming. UTEP’s win total opened 5.5, while Sam Houston had odds of 4.5 wins.
The 1-5 Miners have lost four straight games, with their lone win coming against an FCS opponent.
Sadly, I do think they are undoubtedly the better team, largely because of a defense that ranks 72nd in efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Bearkats rank 125th out of 136 in defensive efficiency.
When Sam Houston seemingly had a chance to compete and possibly notch a win, that unit let the team down. They actually held a fourth-quarter lead twice last week against Jacksonville State but could not get the necessary stops.
The Gamecocks faced a fourth-and-2 on their own 25-yard line with 15 seconds left. Sam Houston subsequently allowed an 18-yard run, 17-yard pass and five-yard pass to allow the game-winning field goal as time expired.
Sam Houston is trending in the right direction and a win would not shock me. But the defensive woes have been a recurring issue.
When the offense occasionally generates a decent amount of points, the defense cannot reciprocate.
The Miners are coming off a few hard-fought and somewhat narrow losses. I expect them to be ready to get back in the win column facing an inferior opponent.
I have a 69-55-2 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is Sam Houston -2.5 points (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook).
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.