Novak Djokovic is the third-favorite to win the 2025 US Open, but he may not find things easy in Round 1 of the year’s final Grand Slam.
The 24-time major champion will open his tournament against rising American Learner Tien, which could split the crowd on Night 1 at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Tien, 19, has never won a match in the U.S. Open main draw, but his game has grown plenty in 2025, making him a really tricky opponent for the Serb right out of the gates.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Learner Tien | +600 |
| Novak Djokovic | -1000 |
While Djokovic has yet to play a match during the current North American hard-court swing, Tien has looked quite comfortable in the conditions, winning six of nine matches in Washington, Toronto, and Cincinnati.
The teenager’s best result came in an upset of World No. 15 Andrey Rublev.
Knocking off seeded players has been a feature of Tien’s file to date, as he’s won four of six matches against top-10 opponents in his career.
Tien’s most notable victory came against Alexander Zverev, the World No. 3, in Miami back in February.
Beating Djokovic in a best-of-5 on Center Court is a whole different animal, but Tien’s ability to punch up at least tells us that he won’t be overwhelmed by the moment, nor the opponent.
Tien should also benefit from the long layoff for Djokovic.
The four-time US Open champion has proven he doesn’t need a ramp-up to be competitive at Grand Slams, but it does make the beginning of the match a bit tricky for Djokovic.
He’ll need to be on point from the first ball against a player like Tien, which is not always the case in Round 1 of a major.
I don’t hate the idea of backing Tien on the moneyline at +600 odds, but if you prefer playing things closer to the vest, a bet on the youngster to win at least one set at -120 seems a savvy play.
The Play: Learner Tien +1.5 sets (-120, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.