The United States Men’s National Team had to huff and puff, but it was able to get by Costa Rica and advance to the semifinals at the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
The USMNT went down, 1-0, and then ahead, 2-1, before blowing that lead and ultimately needing penalties to eliminate Los Ticos.
That wasn’t the only result that went the Yanks’ way in the quarters.
Canada was upset by Guatemala on Sunday, meaning the Americans will be big favorites Wednesday night.
Are bookmakers giving the Americans too much credit against La Azul y Blanco?
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| United States | -340 |
| Draw | +470 |
| Guatemala | +700 |
Team USA currently sits as a whopping -800 favorite to advance to the finals and is -340 to win the match in regulation, which is a steep price to pay considering this team’s form coming into the tournament and how they’ve looked against a soft schedule in the Gold Cup.
You can only beat the team put in front of you, but the Americans caught quite a break with their path.
They stomped all over Trinidad & Tobago, but they were less convincing in one-goal wins over Saudi Arabia and Haiti before beating Costa Rica in penalties.
All of those teams, like Guatemala, are miles behind the USMNT in terms of talent (even this version of Team USA that is missing several key players), but that hasn’t played out on the field.
The Americans are dominating possession and tilting the field in every match they play, but the actual results are lagging behind their stats.
This is not a new phenomenon for the USMNT in CONCACAF play.
Guatemala put on a defensive clinic against Canada and will look to execute a similar game plan against the Stars & Stripes.
Pulling it off won’t be easy, but these upstart teams are very difficult to deal with because of the physical, relentless style of soccer that CONCACAF seems to produce.
The Americans should have enough to get this over the line, but the odds are just way too wide considering the performances we’ve seen from the Yanks in this tournament.
It’s not a bet you should expect to win, but there’s no question that Guatemala is the value side in this tilt.
The Play: Guatemala +700 (FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.