Ukraine will have the power to decimate Russian oil refineries, crippling the main source of funding for its war machine, and launch an Operation Spider Web-style attack on more military bases if the US commits to sharing intelligence and long-range missiles, experts told The Post.
With President Trump reportedly green-lighting an intelligence-sharing agreement for strikes deep inside Russia, Ukraine will be capable of more precise and more destructive attacks against Moscow, said George Barros, of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
And should the US fulfill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles — capable of reaching targets 1,500 miles away — the combination could bring Russia to its knees.
“Russia has always been protected by the tyranny of distance,” Barros said, “but with tomahawks and precise intelligence from the West, you have the payload plus the distance to take out big targets that Ukrainian systems just haven’t been able to hit.”
The newest intelligence-sharing agreement allows the Pentagon and US intel agencies to help Kyiv target oil refineries, pipelines and other infrastructure that provide the Kremlin with revenues and resources needed to sustain its bloody war on Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported.
John Hardie, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, noted that Ukraine has already been able to hit 16 of 38 key oil refineries in recent months, with the number likely to go up with help from the US and NATO.
“These types of strikes create fuel shortages in Russia, force Moscow to limit exports, and ultimately hurt the Russian economy and ability to wage war,” Hardie said.
“And just as important, it brings the war home to Russians, who have been largely apathetic until the economic blows start coming in,” he added.
The attacks so far, however, haven’t completely destroyed a refinery.
A lucrative refinery near Volgograd, for instance, was targeted in August, but the damage only halted operations for a month, the BBC reported.
The Tomahawk missiles — considered one of the most powerful and effective long-range precision cruise missiles — could change that.
“A 100-kilogram (220-pound) warhead can cause some damage like what we’ve seen so far, but a 1,000-kilogram warhead would put Russian equipment out of commission for good,” Barros said.
In addition, Kyiv’s forces should be able to hit refineries they haven’t yet attacked, including the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in Northwestern Russia and the Perm refinery near the Ural Mountains, according to the Caspian Policy Center, which tracks Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Still, the gasoline shortage on the Russian market has so far reached 20%, or about 400,000 tons per month, causing major headaches for consumers, according to The Kommersant business daily.
Russia was also forced on Tuesday to extend its ban on gasoline exports and sign new restrictions on diesel shipments until the end of the year following the latest Ukraine strikes on Russian oil refineries.
But Military analysts said that Ukraine is likely aiming for permission to strike more than just Russia’s energy facilities.
With American guidance and firepower, Ukraine could conduct more large-scale attacks on Russia’s defense infrastructure similar to Operation Spider Web, which took out 41 warplanes over the summer in a humiliating blow to Moscow, said Seth Jones, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.
“Russia will now have to think about where their bases are located and where their weapons stockpiles are placed. Under the range of a Tomahawk missile, those sites are vulnerable now,” he said, noting that America’s intel network is “unparalleled.”
“Russia has always been good at hiding things, so they’ll try their best to mask their bases and stockpiles, but with good intelligence, Russia will have to be careful,” Jones added.
Both Barros and Hardie echoed the need for Ukraine to take aim at Russia’s military industrial complex, with Moscow’s drone factories, soldier transportation routes and air defense systems standing as the prime targets.
However, should the US and NATO move forward with giving Ukraine more might, Russia might look to retaliate against Europe, Jones and Hardie warned.
“But I think what the West has seen is that Russia has a lot of bark and no bite,” Hardie said. “Putin was likely holding out hope that his troops could progress on the frontlines while aid stalled to Ukraine.
“Someone has to tell him that the lines in Ukraine won’t break,” he added.