Charles Oliveira returns to his home country for a fight card in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The UFC returns to Brazil for the first time this year and just the fourth time since the COVID pandemic ended.
Back in the early 2010s, we would go to Brazil twice a year because the country takes mixed martial arts very seriously, arguably making it their second most popular sport.
We have 13 fights on the docket, assuming no pullouts or weight misses.
The entire card will be broadcast on ESPN+ and begins at 4 p.m. ET.
Mateusz Gamrot is an elite grappler at the lightweight division, but there are many other questions to answer about him at 155 pounds.
Gamrot once defeated Arman Tsarukyan by decision in a five-round fight in 2022. Right when it looked like Gamrot was going to fight for a title, he lost to Beneil Dariush by knockout and has stalled a bit since then.
It’s a big spot for Gamrot, who could find himself back in the title picture with a win, but he’s also taking this fight on short notice.
Oliveira, just a few months ago, fought for the vacant lightweight title, losing by knockout. He now turns around in June and fights Gamrot just four months later, after suffering that nasty knockout to Ilia Topuria.
Gamrot’s primary path to victory is to win by decision, though, as a grappler first. If Oliveira had been fighting a striker, I would have significant concerns.
Since Gamrot isn’t the highest-level striker, and he’s been knocked down in four of his last seven fights, despite winning five of them.
If he gets taken down, he won’t be able to rely on his grappling to save himself from danger. Oliveira will be waiting to submit him with a guillotine or d’arce choke.
THE PLAY: Oliveira wins inside the distance (+150, BetMGM)
Not the co-main event, but it should be, Joel Alvarez moves up to welterweight to fight Vicente Luque in a fight that screams violence.
Alvarez was highly competitive at lightweight and, for my money, would have won the title if he could have made the weight more consistently.
Alvarez is absolutely massive for either division, standing at 6’3, Alvarez is a wild blend of violence both in the grappling and striking realms.
He faces a veteran like Luque, who has previously been a top contender but has fallen on some hard times of late.
Luque has lost four of his last six, all by finish.
Alvarez has some of the nastiest elbows in the UFC and also long enough arms to make him front-headlock submissions deadly.
He’s a -600 and should be. Alvarez takes this one by knockout.
THE PLAY: Alvarez by KO/TKO (+175, Fanatics)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson: Figueiredo ML (+260, DraftKings)
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto: Diniz by TKO (+195, FanDuel)
Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli: Fight goes the distance (-106, bet365)
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell Jr.: Almeida by decision (+460, FanDuel)
Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter: Fight ends inside the distance (+112, FanDuel)
Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen: Petrino by submission (+750, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Bia Mesquita vs. Irina Alekseeva: Fight goes the distance (+200, DraftKings)
Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll: Nicoll ML (+105, Caesars Sportsbook)
Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman: Walker by submission (+180, FanDuel)
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz: Pass
Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira: Fight goes the distance (+265, BetRivers)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.