An early start time on Saturday for UFC England as Fight Night goes across the Atlantic Ocean.
Prelims will begin at 12 p.m. on the east coast, and the entire card will be on ESPN+.
Last week, we struggled with 1-3 results on UFC betting picks, but sometimes it’s better to be lucky.
We hit a +900 long shot to bail us out of disaster and give us a comfy profit of six units.
Let’s dive into what UFC Fight Night England has in store for sure.
In the heavyweight division, we get a returning Tom Aspinall after he blew out his knee in the opening seconds against Curtis Blaydes last year.
Aspinall was on a path to the heavyweight title before that, and the odds suggest the same level of confidence, coming in as a -475 favorite.
His opponent is Marcin Tybura, who feels like a layup for Aspinall, even with the injury concerns.
The English fighter is a massive favorite, thanks to his crisp striking and submission skills.
Frankly, Tybura’s only path to victory is survival in the first two rounds and the old “lay and pray” technique.
Don’t expect that to come to fruition here, though.
Aspinall is a wonderful grappler and should pull this one off with ease.
Tybura has been knocked out five times in his career, and while he could just blindly shoot for a takedown into a front headlock submission, the official pick is Aspinall by KO/TKO, with the best odds coming at -143 on BetRivers.
Another fellow Brit is fighting in his home country as Nathanial Wood returns to face Andre “Touchy” Fili.
Wood looked much more efficient in his last fight against Charles Jourdain, a very solid striker.
Fili is a solid fighter and has been a contender in the men’s bantamweight division for about 10 years.
He is a fine fighter, but Wood has a higher upside in striking and grappling.
This fight to go the distance is -192 on FanDuel, as Fili has been to five decisions in his last eight fights while Wood has been to four straight.
Wood is my official pick to come away victorious here, by decision at +123 on BetRivers but the more risk-averse spot is that it just goes the distance -192.
In the flyweight division, this is the curtain-jerker for UFC England.
The first fight of the prelim card should be pretty entertaining, and I’m seeing some betting value on the underdog here.
Daniel Barez of Spain has a wonderful pace, something you should always be looking for when betting on MMA.
Betting on a fighter with excellent cardio will help win decisions when finishing the fight doesn’t go your way.
Let’s also call this bet, not being a fan of Jafel Filho, who showed “ok” in a loss to Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 286.
Filho nearly submitted Mokaev with a leg lock, but other than that didn’t do much on the feet.
In total, Filho landed nine strikes and looked very easy to take down.
Barez is a solid grappler who landed five takedowns in a controversial split decision loss during Dana White’s Contender Series to Carlos Hernandez.
This is one of my favorite bets on the card; take Barez at +105 on Caesars as the first fight on the card with confidence to set up the rest of your bets on Saturday.
Just because you did a good job losing as a big underdog, doesn’t mean you should turn around and be a favorite in your next fight.
The UFC parlay is back this week and comes in at +343 odds, with odds provided by FanDuel.
Makhmud Muradov has a tasty matchup against Bryan Barbarena who loves to stand and trade.
But he is mostly a tough man with power and his striking defense is very poor, so expect Muradov to run away with that one as the odds suggest.
Then we get to Yanal Ashmoz who faces Chris Duncan, a very popular pick this weekend.
I faded Duncan during Dana White’s Contender Series and will continue to do so here, despite his favorite status.
His boxing defense is really poor, and Ashmoz has excellent counterstrikes.
Let’s take a stab at this parlay for UFC England and make some extra lunch money.