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NY Post
New York Post
24 Jun 2023


NextImg:UFC Fight Night odds, picks: Ilia Topuria vs. Josh Emmett rumble in Jacksonville

UFC Fight Night hits Jacksonville this weekend for an early afternoon night of fights.

Last week was a successful return to UFC picks, where we went 3-1-1 for a 1.9 unit win.

We have 13 fights scheduled for Saturday and some household names are littered throughout the prelims and main card.

UFC Fight Night Jacksonville will be broadcasted on ESPN starting at 11:30 a.m. ET with the prelims and the main card is broadcasters at 3 p.m. ET. on ABC.

Expect violence in this one.

Two strikers that are never shy of damage will scare off this weekend, with Topuria possessing a height advantage (5-foot-8 vs. 5-foot-6), but Emmett will likely look bigger thanks to his large chest and back muscles.

Emmett is the kind of fighter that isn’t afraid to be hit –– to a fault sometimes –– but believes you won’t be able to take the shot that he lands.

Against Yair Rodriguez, Emmett struggled to manage distance and looked very hittable on the feet.

Josh Emmett poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on June 23, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

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His path to victory could be with his grappling, he’s a solid wrestler, but Topuria is also a strong grappler in his own right.

Oddsmakers expect this fight to be over in a hurry, but I’m not sure that’s the case.

Both fighters are extremely powerful and don’t throw tons of volume out there.

This could be a bit more of a chess match than oddsmakers are showing, with the fight to go the distance coming in at +460 (BetRivers).

This one is unlikely to go that that, but the fight to start round two comes in at -152 on FanDuel.

Three of Emmett’s last four fights have gone to decision, including a five-round decision to Calvin Kattar.

Ilia Topuria of Spain knocks out Jai Herbert

Ilia Topuria of Spain knocks out Jai Herbert on March 19, 2022.
Zuffa LLC

Topuria hasn’t finished a fighter in the first round in either of his last two wins, and Emmett profiles as a much bigger step in competition for the talented fighter from Spain.

I’m laddering this fight’s minutes as follows, risking a total of 1.5 units to win 1.76 units.

Not a lot of love for David Onama, coming off a majority decision loss to Nate Landwehr last time out.

Onama comes in as a +190 underdog against Gabriel Santos, who should have a solid grappling advantage if and when this fight hits the mat.

David Onama of Uganda and Gabriel Santos of Brazil face off

David Onama of Uganda and Gabriel Santos of Brazil face off.
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

But every round starts on the feet, and Onama is the much better striker, as Santos looked hittable in his UFC debut.

Onama is much longer (74-inch reach vs. 70-inch reach) and his hands looked very dangerous against Landwehr early on before wilting later.

We know this one will get dicey for the underdog the longer it goes, but Onama is worthy of a bet here based on his striking advantages and athleticism alone

+190 is simply too far of a move after he was a -350 favorite against Landwehr and -800 in the fight before that.

Take Onama moneyline +190 on Caesars, and even a small spot on first-round knockout +1100 on FanDuel is a worthy play.

A bonus pick –– Brendan Allen should have a massive grappling advantage over Bruno Silva this weekend, should Allen survive through round one’s impending onslaught.

Silva has cardio issues, so if he doesn’t land a first-round knockout, Allen is live to finish this one by submission in round three.

Allen by submission in round three is +1500 on FanDuel, a wild line considering he is +800 at most other books.