International fight week at UFC 317 should bring the fireworks to Las Vegas.
The 12-fight card features two title fights, and just four of the 12 fights are projected to end inside the distance.
An insane expectation of violence on Saturday night begins at 6:30 p.m. Eastern with the entire prelim card being broadcast on ESPN before switching over to pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.
We had a solid run last week, following some lackluster performances from a betting perspective over the past few weeks.
The 6-5 record would point to an average day, but nailing a +290 wager on top of two other plus-money wins helped us profit 1.72 units and a 15.64 percent ROI.
Charles Oliveira has always been heavy on the forward pressure; it’s a major piece of his game.
But he’ll need to be extremely careful coming in against a boxer like Ilita Topuria.
Topuria is one of the best knockout artists in featherweight history and now moves up to 155 lbs to compete for the lightweight title.
Olivieira, 36, has fought 34 times in the UFC and has taken tons of damage.
We’ve seen previously that he hates getting hit, going back years to when he tapped out due to strikes from Paul Felder in 2017.
By all accounts, Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has ever fought.
Typically, as you get older, you don’t want to get hit harder than you have ever been hit before.
Topuria is an excellent grappler himself, and I suspect that he isn’t as big of a liability on the ground as many would think.
He did win the title in 2021 and defended against strikers and won by submission multiple times, but Saturday’s not his night.
Topuria is the biggest star in the UFC, and I suspect he wins by knockout.
PICK: Topuria by KO/TKO (-150, BetRivers)
If you were to judge this fight purely based on MMA math, you could argue that Kai Kara-France has an excellent chance to snag a win here as an underdog, considering he defeated Askar Askarov while Alexandre Pantoja has a loss against him. ‘
My issue with backing Kara-France as a +220 underdog is that he has four losses in his last nine fights.
Plain and simple, he fights on too thin of margins to get consistent wins, and has had some funky decisions in the past.
Those losses were against some of the best fighters in the division, but his loss to Brandon Royval by submission is concerning on multiple levels.
Pantoja is an excellent wrestler for his size, and his striking isn’t bad either, but if he can’t get takedowns, he’ll have problems.
Flyweight is a high variance division, and these two have fought before on The Ultimate Fighter, with Pantoja winning by decision.
I suspect that Pantoja gets the job done on Saturday, but the line has no value at the price and especially the division they fight in.
Back this one to go the distance with a long shot bet on Kara-France by decision at +500, considering that’s his most likely win condition, even though I don’t love the fighter personally.
PICK: Fight goes the distance (+104, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Kara France by decision (+500, FanDuel)
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira: Topuria by KO/TKO -150, BetRivers)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France: Fight goes the distance (+104, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Kara France by decision (+500, FanDuel)
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van: Royval by submission (+900, Bet365)
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano: Dariush ML (+136, DraftKings)
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima: Lima inside the distance (+400, Fanduel)
Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues: Fight goes to decision (-112, FanDuel)
Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado: Over 1.5 rounds (-159, BetRivers) | Fight goes the distance (+160, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez: Pass
Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev: Fight starts round 2 (+104, FanDuel) | Fight goes the distance (+500, DraftKings)
Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith: Small bet (no more than .2 units) on Price ML (+1200, FanDuel)
Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines: Fight goes to decision (+300, Bet365)
Chris Ewert vs. Jackson McVey: Pass
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.