Live from Newark, N.J., UFC 316 is jam-packed with massive fights, champions, contenders and grizzled vets.
Loads of household names like Kevin Holland, Vicente Luque, Kelvin Gastelum, along with newcomer Patchy Mix, are just a few stars to watch this weekend.
We’ll have wall-to-wall coverage of UFC 316 throughout, including live updates, as The Post’s Scott Fontana and I will be in attendance.
Below, I break down my best bets for this 13-fight card where just five fights are expected to go the distance.
Expect violence in front of a high-octane crowd at the Prudential Center.
Merab Dvalishvili looked like a -1000 favorite in their first meeting last September when he wrestled O’Malley’s title away from him en route to a unanimous decision win.
Dvalishvili was a +105 underdog in that fight, which looks like a gift in hindsight.
For the amount that Dvalishvili grappled in that fight, he didn’t win the decision clearly, according to the judges.
Two had Dvalishvili up, 48-47, and winning three of the first four rounds.
It is possible that Dvalishvili threw away the fifth and final round after having coasted through the first two, but O’Malley did land some hard shots.
Dvalishvili does have a clear path to victory via takedowns, as he went 6-for-15 on attempts in the first fight, although he was just 3-for-11 in the fight’s final three rounds.
The odds had been a bit wide here, with O’Malley reaching +300 status at one point, but his price has cratered down to a much more palatable +210 underdog at the time of writing.
Dvalishvili by decision is -150 odds, and we know this is the most likely scenario in terms of win equity, where the Georgian grappler could just continue to land takedowns against the cage.
Although, this is not your 2021 MMA where grapplers had been allowed to lie on their opponents en route to a 50-45 decision.
Dvalishvili doesn’t tire, that much we know.
But O’Malley did not land that much damage and still took two rounds.
I still think the value is on O’Malley, who should have learned a ton from their first matchup.
Let’s back the Sugar Show to reclaim his gold in a wild scene in Newark.
PICK: Sean O’Malley ML +215 or better (+230, DraftKings)
Long expected to be the best fighter in the women’s bantamweight division, Kayla Harrison faces champion Julianna Pena in one of the most highly anticipated bouts in women’s title history.
Harrison is an athletic marvel, as she is the only American to win Olympic gold in Judo.
With a sterling 18-1 record, Harrison is a -750 favorite and rightfully so. She has been dominant at every step of her mixed martial arts career.
Pena has solid submissions and we know Harrison has a strong offensive grappling background, so I’d presume the champion feels comfortable fighting off her back.
That’s a bad recipe as far as betting is concerned, as anyone who is in grappling situations on their back is losing unless they get a submission win.
Harrison has never been submitted in her career and Pena is +1200 to do so.
That’s the only way I see Harrison losing and even oddsmakers don’t see that happening.
Harrison dominates Saturday night… AND NEW.
PICK: Harrison wins in Over 1.5 rounds (-175, DraftKings)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley: Sean O’Malley ML +215 or better (+230, DraftKings)
Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison: Harrison wins in Over 1.5 rounds (-175, DraftKings)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer: Pyfer by submission (+440, BetRivers)
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix: Mix by KO/TKO (+900, BetMGM)
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland: Fight goes to decision (+165, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van: Bruno Silva by decision (14/1, BetRivers)
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in Round 2 (+300) or 3 (+750, FanDuel)
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Fight goes to decision (+165, BetRivers)
Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson: Williams wins by KO/TKO in round 1 (+390, FanDuel)
Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong: Fight goes to decision (-115, DraftKings)
Jeka Saragih vs. JooSang Yoo: Fight goes to decision (+160, BetMGM)
Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz: Ashmouz ML (+425, DraftKings)
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski: Mederos ML for parlays (-205, Caesars)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.