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NY Post
New York Post
17 Feb 2024


NextImg:UConn vs. Marquette, LSU vs. South Carolina predictions: College hoops picks, odds

The colossal matchup between No. 4 Marquette and top-ranked UConn will be the third top-five meeting between Big East programs since the league was reconfigured in 2013, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

Let’s take a look at that potentially high-scoring game and a showdown in the SEC with serious NCAA Tournament implications.

The red-hot Golden Eagles are packing their bags for Hartford, Conn., and that triggers the Shaka Smart gambling alarm.

As a road underdog, Smart is 11-4-1 against the spread since taking over at Marquette. Just for good measure, he won half of those games outright.

So, can he get the job done again? In my estimation, there’s only one way Smart and the Eagles can and that’s by accelerating the pace.

UConn’s halfcourt defense is elite, particularly inside the arc. The Huskies have the nation’s sixth-best defense when it comes to defending 2-point attempts (43.4 percent).

And once shots go up, UConn’s frontcourt gobbles up rebounds and completely shuts teams down on the offensive glass.

So if Tyler Kolek and the Eagles allow UConn to regularly settle in defensively in the halfcourt, it’s curtains.

Now, Marquette already plays at an accelerated tempo, checking in as the second-fastest team in the Big East, while UConn is the second-slowest, according to Evan Miya.

The Eagles’ pace translates to almost 15 fast-break points per game (19th), and there’s evidence you can run on UConn.

Tyler Kolek #11 of the Marquette Golden Eagles celebrates during the second half against the St. John's Red Storm.
Marquette guard Tyler Kolek celebrates during the second half during their win over St. John’s. Getty Images

Xavier scored 16 fast-break points in a five-point loss to the Huskies last month and Seton Hall used 18 to spark an upset of UConn in December.

The blueprint is there and the Eagles have a “point god” to make it all go.

In the last four games, Kolek has gone thermonuclear, averaging 26/9/7 per night.

With Kolek pushing the pace, scoring, and facilitating for his teammates, this game should be played in the 80s.

I would play the Over in this spot to the cusp of 150, and would also target a live number on UConn if Marquette gets off to a hot start.

Laying this many points to a Shaka Smart team isn’t wise, but targeting UConn -3/3.5/4 live is worth it if you can grab it in the first five to seven minutes of action.

Recommendation: Over 147.5 points.

It’s that time of year when conference races and bubble talk start to dominate the conversation.

In this case, you have two teams headed in opposite directions.

LSU’s recent skid, dropping six of seven outright, has moved them off the bubble entirely.

The Tigers’ only path to the NCAA Tournament at this point is winning the SEC Tournament in Nashville next month, but that might require five wins in five days.

In just Year 2, Matt McMahon’s seat is already heated.

South Carolina, despite a 40-point implosion against Auburn on the road this week, still has a great opportunity to take home the SEC regular-season crown.

Just a half-game back of Alabama, the Gamecocks need to start stacking wins down the stretch, and it’ll start at home against an overmatched LSU team.

The Tigers are dreadful on the defensive glass and turn it over 13 times per game (282nd). Those discernible weaknesses are South Carolina’s strengths.

Lamont Paris’ Gamecocks are a sound rebounding team, they protect the ball, and they share as well as any team in the conference with an assist-to-made-basket ratio of .604 (19th).

Dating to 2018, Paris has been one of the best bets off of a loss, covering 61 percent of his games.

He’ll get the Gamecocks back on track and cover this two-possession spread.

Recommendation: South Carolina -7.5.