When Connecticut entered the NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed, pundits had their eyes on the Huskies as an analytics-friendly powerhouse with an outside shot at a deep run.
Two rounds later, UConn is the co-favorite to emerge from the loaded West Region.
Standing in its way is Arkansas, which already ousted No. 1 seed Kansas in the second round and has its eyes on another bracket-busting upset in the Sweet 16.
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which tips off at 7:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
(via BetMGM)
(7:15 p.m. ET., CBS)
It’s easy to overlook this Arkansas team after it entered the field as a No. 8 seed, but Eric Musselman’s group opened the year ranked in the top 10 and has reached the Elite Eight in each of the past two seasons.
Don’t expect that streak to continue this year.
That shouldn’t take anything away from this stellar run by Razorbacks, who did all the little things to beat Kansas in the second round.
Still, it wasn’t a special performance by any means: Arkansas shot below 50 percent inside the arc and was a miserable 3-of-15 from deep (20%), but it grabbed a whopping 14 offensive rebounds – tied for its third-most in a game all year – to overcome an efficient day from the Jayhawks’ offense.
This wasn’t exactly a special team in the regular season, either.
The Razorbacks started 11-1 before dropping five of their first six conference games without leading scorer Nick Smith, who missed 19 games in total.
Even when he came back in early February, they went just 3-6 down the stretch with middling efficiency on both ends of the court.
Arkansas has since won twice in the tournament, but he’s scored a combined six points in those two victories.
And the Razorbacks will almost certainly need more from him to keep pace with mighty UConn.
The Huskies have been a sleeping giant all year, ranking fourth in KenPom with top-15 efficiency on offense (third) and defense (14th) despite its modest 27-8 record.
In fact, Connecticut ranks No. 1 in T-Rank’s power rating over the last month, during which the Huskies have gone 8-1 and outscored opponents by 13.6 points per game.
That includes two dominant wins over Iona (+24) and Saint Mary’s (+15), with star center Adama Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) leading the way in both contests.
He’s averaged 26 points on 72.7% shooting in the tournament thus far and has long been a litmus test for UConn’s success.
Since 2021, the Huskies are 19-0 when Sanogo scores at least 20 points, as he’s done three times in his last six games.
When the 6-9 junior is feasting down low, this team is awfully hard to beat, especially with likely first-round pick Jordan Hawkins (15.9 PPG) keeping defenses honest as a perimeter shooter and secondary shot-creator.
It all adds up to a tough spot for Arkansas, which has relied on its size to bully teams down low but won’t have that advantage on Thursday.
With how poorly the Razorbacks have shot the ball all year and in this tournament, it’s hard to back the ‘Hogs in a matchup that doesn’t feel all that close.