Guessing where the prices will go ahead of a Triple Crown race can be a tricky endeavor. 

There will be a lot more casual money in the pool than in a normal stakes race, so things can get a little funky behind the window as punters back horses with their favorite name, story, or connections. 

But the betting handle for the 2025 Belmont Stakes should be pretty easy to project. Most of the money is going to show up on the two favorites, No. 7 Journalism (8-5) and No. 2 Sovereignty (2-1). 

In all likelihood, Journalism and Sovereignty will go off shorter than 2-1, which could make this the tightest margin between the favorite and second choice at the Belmont Stakes since Strodes Creek (13-10) and Go For Gin (3-2) in 1994, per Ed DeRosa of Horse Racing Nation. 

It is easy to make the case for either Journalism or Sovereignty to win this race — the morning-line odds suggest it’s essentially a 75 percent chance one of the favorites comes out on top — but there’s a reason there are eight horses in this field, and not just two. 

After all, Go For Gin and Strodes Creek finished second and third, respectively, behind third-favorite Tabasco Cat in 1994. 

Here are my 2025 Belmont Stakes long-shot picks: 

This price should balloon on race day. 

Not only will the punters be lining up to back the two headliners, but Baeza will be a trendy third choice, and Rodriguez will get plenty of support given the fact he’s trained by Bob Baffert. 

That should set up a situation where Hill Road, who began his career in Ireland, will fly under the radar and hit the board at a big number. 

To do that, he’ll need the race to follow a specific script. 

Like Sovereignty, Hill Road is a closer who will want the pace to be hot, and then melt down in the business end of the race. 

Should that happen, Hill Road could pass plenty of tiring foes on his way to a surprising finish. 

There are a couple of horses that could earnestly attempt to go from gate to wire in this field.

Most pundits believe Rodriguez will be the horse that gets out into the lead from the jump, but Crudo could be right there with Baffert’s entrant, or even jump out in front of the No. 3 horse. 

Rodriguez will be the trendier pick between the two front-running horses.

Not only is he a Baffert-trained contender, but he will be fresh after he was scratched from the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness. 

Those factors should keep his price in the single digits, while Crudo’s odds hover around long-shot territory. 

But the real reason that Crudo, trained by Todd Pletcher, is a live long shot at Saratoga on Saturday is that he just wired the field in the Sir Barton Stakes three weeks ago on Preakness Day. 

The competition in that race was nowhere near what he’ll face in the Belmont, but there’s also a decent chance that this lightly raced horse owned by chef Bobby Flay and Jimmy Ventura continues to improve.