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Aug 22, 2025  |  
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NextImg:Trump’s narrow road to Ukraine peace has three milestones for success — or failure

When it comes to peace in Ukraine, President Donald Trump has said it takes “two to tango” — but while Vladimir Putin continues Russia’s attacks, only Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky looks ready for a deal on realistic terms.

Monday’s White House meeting with Zelensky and European officials revealed that peace is now possible, but the road ahead will not be straight or wide.

Zelensky shined at the White House, even as Putin bombed Ukrainian civilians. Cool under pressure, Ukraine’s president showed he’s learned how to navigate the currents of American diplomacy.

He swapped the military fatigues from his last visit for more formal attire, showing his respect for Trump’s office.

His words also struck the right notes, expressing genuine gratitude to the American people for their unwavering support and demonstrating his new rapport with Trump.

When statecraft called for stagecraft, Zelensky nailed his part.

Trump also rose to the occasion.

He honored the iron law of successful American diplomacy: When dealing with Moscow, don’t cut deals involving the Europeans without them in the room.

President Franklin Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill made that fatal mistake at Yalta as World War II was ending, carving up the world with Russian leader Josef Stalin.

Trump has done the opposite, bringing Europe’s heavyweight leaders into the room with Zelensky to plot the course to peace.

America holds powerful cards. Trump should play them.

Trump wants to get Putin and Zelensky in the same room, but he should prepare for poison pills from the Kremlin.

For starters, Moscow is demanding Ukrainian territory it doesn’t control.

This is a classic Putin negotiating strategy: If Kyiv rejects his maximalist demands, he’ll frame the Ukrainians as obstacles to peace, even as his armies keep fighting.

Three tests will determine whether peace talks succeed or fail.

First, sequencing matters.

Trump wants to secure lasting peace, but the onus must be on Putin to prove he’s negotiating in good faith by halting military operations.

Even then, Moscow could use any pause to reload and reinvade. Hard security guarantees for Ukraine are essential to deter this outcome after Russia’s guns go silent.

Second, land for peace is the wrong framework for this conflict’s end — and Trump should be wary of this pitfall.

Putin claims he wants to address the war’s “root causes,” but his real goal is conquest and the reabsorption of all Ukraine into Russia.

By fighting for their survival, Ukrainians have earned the right to chart their own course: full integration in the European Union and a future free from Russian aggression.

Major territorial concessions on Moscow’s terms could abandon millions of Ukrainians to Russian rule and shrink the very nation that Kyiv’s soldiers have died to defend.

Trump has pledged to defer to Ukraine on the details. That’s the right call: Washington must not pressure Kyiv to bend to Putin’s extreme demands.

Third, Ukraine’s “stolen children” must be a non-negotiable issue.

Russia has kidnapped at least 19,500 Ukrainian children from occupied regions — as Putin aimed to both conquer Ukraine’s territory and steal its future.

Ukraine’s first lady has made their return her mission, and Melania Trump has joined it, writing a personal letter to Putin. Her personal diplomacy is needed and inspiring.

If Putin drags his feet on peace, land and Ukraine’s stolen kids, the White House must use its overwhelming economic leverage to squeeze him harder.

Trump can join Europeans in lowering the oil price cap set by sanctions, forcing Russia to accept less revenue for each barrel it sells.

Secondary sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers could compel its oil customers to comply with international sanctions and starve Moscow of the money it needs to continue the war.

Sen. Lindsey Graham is rallying the Senate to help Trump do just that, giving him expanded authority over sanctions and tariffs.

For an endgame strategy, Trump can borrow from his Iran playbook and require Russian oil payments to sit in escrow accounts, rather than flowing directly to Moscow.

Military pressure is also essential. A top priority should be to create a “fortress belt” around Ukraine.

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European allies say they’ll provide troops, and the United States can assist by selling NATO allies more arms and equipment from American stocks, allowing them to provide necessary weapons to Ukraine.

This should include more air defense, artillery and long-range systems capable of striking Russia’s military-industrial sites.

Washington should also push Europeans to tap their share of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian rearmament and reparations.

Trump is right that it takes two to tango. But when one partner keeps stomping on the other’s feet while demanding he must lead, it’s time to change the music.

Putin will come to the table when the costs of staying away become unbearable — and not a moment before.

Peter Doran is an adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.