Former President Donald Trump leads President Biden by two percentage points among registered voters nationwide in a head-to-head 2024 election matchup, according to a poll out Tuesday.
The New York Times/Siena College survey shows Trump is backed by 46% of those voters, while Biden is supported by 44%. Another 9% of registered voters refused to answer either way.
Among likely voters, however, 47% said they backed Biden while 45% said they backed Trump and 8% said they didn’t know or declined to answer.
The split recalls Trump’s 2016 election victory, when he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.1 percentage points but won the Electoral College.
Among voters who did not support either candidate as their first pick, 26% said they would choose Biden and 24% would choose Trump if they had to decide between the two. But half of them still refused to make a decision.
The Times/Siena poll also found Biden’s job performance rating remains underwater, with 58% of registered voters disapproving of his leadership and 37% approving. By contrast, 54% disapprove of Trump and 42% approve.
Of the 1,016 respondents, 43% said they voted for Biden during the 2020 presidential election, while just 35% said they voted for Trump. Another 16% said they did not vote.
The survey, which was conducted Dec. 10-14, also found 20% of registered voters cited the economy as the most important problem facing the country, while 14% mentioned inflation and 10% said immigration.
Issues like the state of democracy (7%), foreign policy (5%) and climate change (2%) polled in the single digits as the most important problem, with abortion receiving fewer than 1% of voters’ concern.
A plurality of registered voters (46%) also said they believe Trump would “do a better job on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” while 38% believe Biden would handle the conflict better. Another 15% didn’t know or refused to answer.
The new poll reflects a loss of support for Biden from other recent surveys in key battleground states and on his handling of critical issues for voters.
Biden, 81, is running for re-election next year despite concerns from Democrats about his age and electability.
Former Obama chief campaign strategist David Axelrod has said the president should drop out because the likelihood of him winning was about “50-50” — prompting Biden to reportedly call him a “prick.”
“I don’t care about them thinking I’m a prick — that’s fine,” Axelrod told New York Times opinion columnist Maureen Dowd last month of the report. “I hope they don’t think the polls are wrong, because they’re not.”
Meanwhile, Trump, 77, could have his electability threatened if he is convicted on any of the 91 criminal charges he faces in federal, state and local indictments.
More than half of registered voters support removing the 45th president from 2024 ballots upon conviction, a December poll shows, while other surveys register a jump in support for Biden if the former president is convicted.
The Times/Siena survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points among registered voters and 3.7 percentage points among likely voters.