Former President Donald Trump remains just ahead of President Biden in Michigan as primary voters get ready to go to the polls Tuesday, a new poll of the battleground state has found.
Trump leads Biden 46% to 44% among registered voters in the Great Lakes State, while 10% were undecided between the two, according to the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
The poll pegged a significant gender gap between backers of the two presidential contenders. Male Michiganders went for Trump over Biden by 53% to 41%, while females backed Biden over Trump 46% to 41%.
Independents broke for the 77-year-old former president by six percentage points, 43% to 37%.
When third-party contenders were added to the mix, Trump recorded 42% support to Biden’s 39%, while environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. scored 6% and Green Party contender Jill Stein and academic Cornel West each notched 1%.
Monday’s poll represented a narrowing of the gap from the January Emerson/The Hill survey, in which Trump led Biden by six points, 47% to 41%.
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to win Michigan since George W. Bush in 1988, while Biden regained the state for the Democrats four years later.
“Michigan’s a purple state,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) told CBS’ “Face the Nation” Sunday. “This state’s going to be purple from now until November.”
Trump is averaging a 5.1 percentage point lead over Biden in Michigan, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.
Michigan is set to hold both its Republican and Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, with the state GOP organizing a caucus to take place Saturday.
In the Republican primary, Trump leads former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by a whopping 49 percentage points — 69% to 20% — and 11% undecided.
When the undecided voters were pressed on their choice, Trump’s support increased to 76% to 24% for Haley.
In the Democratic primary, Biden has 75% support, with 9% saying they would vote “uncommitted” and 5% backing Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.)
When undecided voters were pressed, Biden got 77% support, with 16% saying they were “uncommitted” and 7% saying they would vote for Phillips.
Michigan progressives, led by activist Layla Elabed — the sister of Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), have led the effort to vote “uncommitted” in the primary in protest of the White House policy toward the war between Israel and Hamas.
Biden allies have met with Arab and Muslim leaders in Michigan this month in a bid to patch things up and the president has begun taking a harder stand against some of Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip.
Michigan has the largest Arab population of any state in the country, comprising 2.1% of its demographics.
An effort to write in “ceasefire” during the unsanctioned New Hampshire Democratic primary contest last month drew 1.2% support, fewer than the proportion of write-ins for Haley (3.8%) or Trump (1.7%).
Michigan voters rated the economy as their top issue in 2024 (31%), followed by immigration (13%), threats to democracy (12%) and healthcare (10%)
“Voters who say the economy is the top issue facing Michigan break for Trump over Biden, 56% to 33%, along with immigration 86% to 7%,” noted Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball. “Those who say threats to democracy break for Biden 76% to 19%.”
The Emerson College/The Hill poll surveyed 1,000 Michigan registered voters Feb. 20-24. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.