Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former president Donald Trump in Minnesota, but the gap between the candidates halved in the span of a month, a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released over the weekend shows.
Among likely voters in the state, Harris leads Trump 48% to 43%, down from Harris’ 10-point lead of 50% to 40% in July following her nomination.
“Kamala Harris still has a lead in Minnesota, but it’s half as big as it was a month ago. It’s clear this race remains very unsettled,” KSTP’s Tom Hauser said. “By most accounts, Democrats came out of their 2024 national convention unified behind Kamala Harris, and her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. But instead of a bounce from the convention and the Walz pick, the presidential race actually tightened in Minnesota.”
The poll surveyed 800 adults from Minnesota from Aug. 27 to 29; 704 respondents were registered voters and 635 were determined to be likely voters. The poll has a +/-4.5 margin of error.
The results also show Harris continues to lead among women voters, drawing 55% of female support versus Trump’s 37%, an 18-percentage point difference. To a smaller extent, Trump leads among men by six percentage points, 48% to Harris’ 42%.
Urban and suburban voters tend to favor Harris, while rural voters support Trump. Harris leads Trump 57% to 34% in urban areas and 53% to 39% in the suburbs. Trump captures 54% of support from rural voters in the state, versus 37% for Harris.
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When asked their views about the two vice presidential picks, 37% of likely voters surveyed believe Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was an excellent choice for Harris’ vice-presidential pick. Thirty-four percent believe Walz is a poor choice, and 27% think he is a good or fair choice.
By contrast, only 17% believe Vance was an excellent pick. Thirty-eight percent say he is a poor choice, while the same percentage think he is a good or fair choice.
Poll respondents were 40% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 22% Independents. The state of Minnesota consistently votes for Democratic presidential candidates, last voting for a Republican in 1972 with Richard Nixon.