President Biden and former President Donald Trump are dead even in the state of Virginia, which hasn’t backed a Republican for the White House in two decades, according to a stunning survey released Wednesday.
Trump, 77, and Biden, 81, each receive 42% support from likely voters in the commonwealth, according to the head-to-head poll from Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research.
Another 14% said they would vote for other candidates and the remaining 2% said they were undecided.
When three other third-party candidates were polled, Biden edged ahead of Trump by 40% to 38%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 8% support, Green Party leader Jill Stein received 3%, and independent Cornel West received 1% support.
Another 8% said they would vote for “other” candidates in the five-way matchup and 2% said they were undecided.
Virginia is widely seen to be a safe state for Biden and has been sparsely polled as a result. Previous Roanoke College polls from February and December 2023 showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump in a state the Democrat won by 10 percentage points four years ago.
Between 1952 and 2004, Virginia voters backed the Republican nominee in every presidential election but one — 1964, when Democrat Lyndon Johnson defeated Republican Barry Goldwater in a landslide.
Since Barack Obama’s election in 2008, however, no GOP nominee has taken the commonwealth’s 13 electoral votes, with Mitt Romney coming closest to putting Virginia in the Republican column in 2012.
However, Trump’s team has repeatedly stressed they see Virginia as “in play” for November, pointing to poll numbers showing a statistical tie or Biden narrowly ahead.
While the 45th president lost Virginia by double-digits four years ago, he came within 5.3 percentage points of shocking Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November,” agreed Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Roanoke College.
“But five months is an eternity in politics. This tie or two-point lead seems dramatic, but they are within the margin of error of the results of the February 2024 and November 2023 Roanoke College Polls. Still, it seems that Trump is narrowing Biden’s lead, which has all but disappeared.”
As in most other polls, the economy was rated as the No. 1 issue for voters (44%), with immigration coming in second at 14% and abortion in third at 13%.
The survey also showed that the race is still very volatile, with only 64% of respondents saying they are very certain of their choice, while 28% say they are somewhat certain.
The Roanoke College poll was conducted May 12-21 among 711 Virginia residents. The survey has a margin of error of 4.24%.
Meanwhile, an Economist/ YouGov poll released Wednesday showed Trump narrowly leading Biden in a five-way national survey.
Trump came in at 41% support and Biden got 40% support, while Kennedy got 4% and Stein and West got 1% each.