A brewing tropical storm is threatening the coastal areas of several mid-Atlantic states with strong winds, potentially life-threatening storm surge and torrential rains that may lead to flash flooding from Friday through this weekend.
This system, now dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen – formerly Invest 99L – is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast of North Carolina, earning the name Ophelia once it’s found to have winds of at least 39 mph. In the interim, earning the PTC designation allows the NHC to issue Tropical Storm Warnings in anticipation of future development into a tropical storm with a projected near-term landfall.
“So this is another one of those tricky things that the center and the impact zone are going to be kind of well separated,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.
The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including Albemarle and Pamlico sounds in North Carolina and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, Virginia.
A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are expected in the warning area within 36 hours. These winds may be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding and/or river flooding.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Surf City, North Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, Virginia, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds in North Carolina.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters that move inland from the coast.
The water could reach the following heights:
“We also have Storm Surge Watches because the Storm Surge Watch means that the water could be more than three feet above high tide. When we look at that in more detail, we see that the it’s up to three feet down there – northern South Carolina into North Carolina. Then on Cape Hatteras, there’s where the kind of the peak of this is – Cape Hatteras and then up north. So we’re talking about in Pamlico Sound and then also up into Chesapeake Bay and the southern half of Chesapeake Bay.” said Norcross.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is located about 355 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and is moving to the north at 9 mph. It has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will continue to head to the north through early Friday. The NHC said a north-northwestward to northward motion is expected by late Friday and will continue into the weekend.
On that track, the NHC said the center of the system will approach the coast of North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Friday night and early Saturday. The storm is expected to continue north near or through Virginia and Maryland, with much of the Interstate 95 corridor within the cone through the weekend into Monday morning, including Washington, New York City and into southern New England.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is expected to cause a potentially life-threatening storm surge along the coast, as well as produce heavy rain and strong winds, no matter whether it eventually becomes Tropical Storm Ophelia.
“People need to not get hung up on the whole ‘does this get a name?’ thing,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “Because the impact really does not change.”
According to the FOX Forecast Center, impacts from the storm system are expected to begin Friday as it spins closer to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
Several inches of rain are expected to fall from Florida to the Northeast and New England during the event, and strong winds pushing in from the ocean could lead to flash flooding and coastal flooding.
Forecasters said Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen could produce 2-4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches, across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey.
Parts of the Northeast and southern New England could also see higher rainfall totals between 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts.
Power outages are also a concern due to the whipping winds that could bring down trees onto power lines.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina starting Friday and will spread to the north over the weekend.