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New York Post
2 Mar 2023


NextImg:Trades worth the risk for an Islanders team — and fan base — not ready for a rebuild

On the ice from Long Island

Sign up for Inside the Islanders by Ethan Sears, a weekly Sports+ exclusive.

For the moment, the Islanders’ attention is completely focused on making the playoffs, something not only sensible, but admirable in a landscape that incentivizes teams in the middle of the league to tear down before they build up.

Instead of trying to break apart the core that got the Islanders to two NHL final fours in a row, Isles GM Lou Lamoriello is doing everything he can to maximize their chances of competing, dealing for Bo Horvat and Pierre Engvall while signing the former to a long-term extension.

There is a future to consider, however, beyond the first round and the two guaranteed playoff home games that would allow the Islanders to show UBS Arena off on a national stage. That is where things get interesting.

To be fair, it is not a guarantee the Islanders would lose in the first round to either the Bruins or the Hurricanes, their two most likely opponents. But they would be massive underdogs in either series.

They pushed the Bruins to overtime in one of three games against Boston this season but failed to beat them, and well, this looks like a historically good Bruins team.

Bo Horvat plays the puck down the ice during a road win over the Jets on Feb. 26.
NHLI via Getty Images

As for Carolina, they beat the ‘Canes in Raleigh very early in the season, but have looked completely overwhelmed in two matchups since.

It is tantalizing to think that a well-timed return from Mathew Barzal could spark the Islanders into contention in either series, but more likely than not, they would be on course for a first-round exit. (If the Devils, now only one behind Carolina with one extra game played, can make a run that sets up a matchup against the Isles in the first round, that would better suit them. But we are a long way off from that happening.)

So, for the sake of argument (and for an interesting newsletter), what would the Islanders’ outlook be after a first-round exit?

In a lot of ways, it might turn out to be a more optimistic-looking version of last year’s offseason.

If they make the playoffs and retain general manager Lou Lamoriello, whose contract is widely believed to be expiring after this season, the Isles are not about to move on from their current core.

Lamoriello’s future is a question — maybe the biggest question facing the Islanders — after this season, as he will be 81 in the fall.

But at least publicly, he’s shown no desire at all to leave the game. It would also be hard to see ownership pushing him out if he engineers a playoff berth, even if a run ends in the first round.

<img src="https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/03/GettyImages-1407436427.jpg?w=1024" alt="General manager Lou Lamoriello will be 81 years old at the end of this season but has shown no signs of slowing down with the Islanders.<br /><em>Getty Images
General manager Lou Lamoriello will be 81 years old next season, but has shown no signs of slowing down with the Islanders.
NHLI via Getty Images

Rebuilding has never made much sense for the Islanders, and makes even less sense now that Horvat is in the mix.

Horvat, Mat Barzal, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Casey Cizikas, Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov are all under contract until 2025 at the earliest.

That, plus Ilya Sorokin, is the core the Isles are going to try to win with for the foreseeable future, and an eventual extension for Sorokin will be the backdrop of any moves the Isles make from now until one is signed.

Of that group, the Islanders most need to see development from Dobson and Romanov, who they have invested in as an eventual second pair, though they’ve been split up for most of this season.

Lamoriello also needs to decide during the offseason whether to stay with the Identity Line as the team’s fourth line, or pivot, with Hudson Fasching having proven himself going into free agency and Cal Clutterbuck having struggled with injuries all season.

A puck-moving defenseman should be at the top of the shopping list (for the upcoming trade deadline as well as free agency), and there is some debate to be had over whether Scott Mayfield fits into the mix with his free agency pending.

Ilya Sorokin makes a save against the Minnesota Wild during the game at the Xcel Energy Center Tuesday night.

Ilya Sorokin makes a save during a a loss to the Wild on Feb. 28.
NHLI via Getty Images

None of these, though, would represent an overhaul. Even if the Islanders fail to make the playoffs, there is not an obvious path to pursuing that.

There is always the possibility of moving one of the core pieces via a hockey trade, or that, if Lamoriello leaves, a new general manager might view this core differently.

But even in those scenarios, you would not see a teardown — the organization has no desire to be non-competitive so soon after it has opened a new building.

And despite what you see in some corners of Twitter, it is hard to believe the fan base does, either.

There has been enough suffering for them in the nearly four decades since the Islanders’ last championship.

Plus, the Isles are not exactly flush with draft picks at the moment.

Toronto Maple Leaf turned Islander Pierre Engvall is a question in the team's future.

Toronto Maple Leaf-turned-Islander Pierre Engvall is a question in the team’s future.
AP

It depends. We haven’t seen Engvall in an Islanders uniform yet, and the answer will first depend on how he performs between now and the end of the season.

The next question is how that performance would affect his price tag.

Engvall is making $2.25 million annually. If he stays in that range, he would likely be affordable for the Islanders, especially if Josh Bailey is bought out over the summer.

The Isles, though, have a glut of wingers under contract for next season whose best attribute is anything but scoring.

So the long-term calculus on Engvall will first and foremost be determined on whether he falls into that category or not, and where he fits into a healthy organizational depth chart.

Anders Lee celebrates a goal with teammates during the first period in a game against the Pittsburgh Penguins at UBS Arena.

Anders Lee celebrates a goal with teammates during a crucial Feb. 17 win over the Penguins.
NHLI via Getty Images

Lamoriello had a pretty good answer on Tuesday when asked about his confidence in this group’s postseason chances.

“I think it’s my job to give our group as best a chance to have success,” he said. “And I think with the recent injuries that we’ve had, we’ve certainly done everything that’s expected. And I think this gives a little extra support.”

The key part of the answer is how well the Islanders have performed with their recent injuries.

It’s pretty hard to give up on a group that has continued to not just fight, but win games after its best player went down. The Islanders’ first-round pick, which conditionally went to Vancouver in the Horvat deal, is only top-12 protected, and they might be on course to pick 13th or 14th if they miss the playoffs.

They’re also, frankly, too good to execute a full-on tank, even if that was a route they believed in taking.

It would be hard to call a first-round loss a success if that’s where this ends — after all, pretty much the same group of players were talking about a Stanley Cup not all that long ago — but there is something to be said for playing meaningful games instead of the funeral procession that last season became.