This week’s PGA Tour Championship has a unique format in that it features a staggered start for a field of only 30 golfers.
Scottie Scheffler, who sits atop the FedExCup standings, will start at -10, Xander Schauffele at -8, Hideki Matsuyama at -7, and so on until the final five golfers in the standings, who each will start at even par.
The unique format makes this one of the strangest events of the year to handicap and bet.
There are essentially two main outright markets — one with starting strokes and the other without.
I prefer the latter, but it’s a little harder to sweat since there’s not a leaderboard that only tracks the scores for the four rounds, adding extra legwork to bet the low 72-hole score.
East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta has undergone a major restoration since last year’s event.
The fairways and greens were re-shaped, bunkers were added and removed, and the course was lengthened by more than 100 yards.
It is now a par-71 that measures 7,490 yards, making it one of the longest courses on tour on a par-adjusted basis.
The course might look a little different to the golfers, but its bones are still the same. Historically, hitting fairways at East Lake has been essential.
The rough is difficult to play out of and there are trees blocking approach shots that aren’t from the fairway.
I’m focusing most of my attention on total driving, strokes gained approach and bogey avoidance.
Here are my best bets for the 2024 Tour Championship:
There are a lot of reasons to like Schauffele over Scheffler this week.
For starters, he has much better course history at East Lake.
If you look at the last five years (without starting strokes), he has finished first, T6, T3, first, and T2.
He’s the most complete player on tour, as he doesn’t have a single weakness in his game.
It’s a reason why he’s been able to have so much success at this event, as East Lake challenges all parts of a golfer’s game.
He’ll start two strokes behind Scheffler, but that’s not a major concern.
Scheffler lost strokes tee to green last week for the first time in a year and has finished T13 or worse at this event (without starting strokes) in each of the last three years.
Morikawa, who finished with the fourth-best 72-hole score at the Tour Championship last year, might have the best course fit of anyone in the field.
He’s an elite total driver of the ball, has been one of the best iron players on tour for years, and he’s made big strides with his short game.
Even though he’s had one of the most consistent seasons of his career, he doesn’t have a win on his resume in 2024.
He’s unlikely to catch Scheffler and Schauffele when you include the starting strokes, but he’s certainly live to finish with the lowest 72-hole score.
Like Morikawa, Henley relies on accuracy off the tee and good iron play.
He tends to play his best on courses that can’t be overpowered off the tee.
With the thick rough and water in play on eight holes, golfers will need to be accurate this week.
That should set up extremely well for Henley, who already has four top-five finishes this season.
The issue with Henley is that he typically doesn’t play great when he finds himself in contention on Sunday.
The nice part about this bet is that he can have the low 72-hole score without feeling the added pressure of the final day. He’s starting at -2, so he can stay aggressive all four days.