ESPN NBA writer Tim Bontemps might not have known it in 2017, but when he started his NBA MVP Straw Poll, it would change how we view the award’s odds.

“The odds have been proven to be all over the place… Vegas is sort of just throwing darts on these awards,” Bontemps told The Post when asked about odds movement throughout the year.

His NBA MVP Straw Poll has become one of the more significant bits of content to consider when betting consistently on the NBA MVP award.

Much like stocks, futures betting is about targeting odds at the right prices.

But this poll gives us loads of insight – and borderline answers – as to who will end up winning the MVP award.

“I am aware, yes,” Bontemps said when asked about his role in the MVP markets.

Bontemps is able to get multiple media members from each market and poll them to get an idea of where the MVP award is leaning.

The first year he did it, the Straw Poll had James Harden as MVP a month before the season ended.

In that month, Russell Westbrook separated himself and won the MVP, averaging a triple-double for the Kevin Durant-less Oklahoma City Thunder.

“I have been refining the process over time and started doing it at ESPN for the 2019-2020 season. That’s when I really started mimicking the NBA’s system, and it’s a reasonable replica of it,” Bontemps said.

Since the 2019-2020 season, Bontemps has done the Straw Poll three times and has been accurate to the winner for three consecutive years.

MVP betting odds have really taken notice of this effect on the MVP race.

In 2022, we saw his final Straw Poll of the season move Joel Embiid from a -300 favorite to an underdog while the eventual winner, Nikola Jokic, became the favorite.

But don’t expect this poll to expand past the MVP award.

“Probably not; maybe I would do it for an award here or there, but frankly, there’s not a daily interest level for who the most improved player in the league is,” Bontemps said about the other awards potentially being polled.

Bettors may beg to differ on that, though.

“It’s a lot of work to do these polls. It’s pretty labor-intensive, and I’m asking people to do me a favor by doing it. That makes MVP a little easier for people.”

So, no, we won’t be getting clarity on the Most Improved Player of the Year or Sixth Man of the Year from a pool of media members.

There are just too many variables involved.

Regardless, when there is an opportunity to snag some profit, gamblers will be chomping at the bit for more.

A reason these futures markets are so exciting in the betting community is simple: It’s hard to truly put out accurate odds.

“Vegas is trying to handicap odds of how 100 people intend to vote on an award,” Bontemps said.

Oddsmakers often struggle to put out accurate odds on how these people will vote, as we discussed this past year’s NFL Coach of the Year odds when Brian Daboll won while being +3000 around Christmas and closing near +300.

Sometimes these markets are major liabilities for books – and moneymaking opportunities for bettors.

Let’s dive into the final odds and sportsbook liabilities for the 2023 NBA MVP award courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

(Closed at -1000)

“The three guys at the top of the ballot have every qualification you could ask for — really unassailable cases. You can argue until you are blue in the face for any of these guys,” Bontemps said of the three-horse race between Jokic, Antetokounmpo, and Embiid.

Jokic was a -400 favorite to win the MVP as recently as the beginning of March on BetMGM.

And still, at -1000 to end the regular season, Embiid is the runaway leader.

As Bontemps said, this is a handicap on how 100 people will vote.

“Whichever way it ends up going, regardless of who wins, it’ll only take a few people to change their minds. I’ll be surprised if anyone wins in a rout,” Bontemps said.

Embiid will win the 2023 NBA MVP award, in all likelihood thanks to his hot play to close the year.

Which would appear to be a favorable outcome for this sportsbook.