For the first time in these NBA Finals, there is just one off day between games.
In my eyes, that is a difference-maker and has to play a role in the Game 4 analysis.
Oddsmakers formulate betting lines by using statistics from the entire season. Intelligent bettors swear by the importance of a large sample size, but I think the playoffs are a different animal and should be treated as such. That means, in my eyes, the regular-season data should be viewed with a grain of salt.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a six-point favorite at the Indiana Pacers on Friday, even though they are 0-8 Against The Spread (ATS) on the road this postseason.
Plus, despite being favored in all eight games, they only won half of them.
I lean to Indy catching the points, but my favorite play involves a proposition bet surrounding Chet Holmgren, largely because of the quick turnaround between games.
The 7-foot-1 Holmgren is listed at just 208 pounds and looks even thinner. His slight frame has inhibited his production through this postseason.
Prior to grabbing 10 rebounds in Game 3, his rebounds prop cashed the Under in seven straight games.
A few factors caused the outlier double-digit rebounding game that will not repeat for Friday’s game.
After logging 35 minutes, which was his highest since the second round, Holmgren was visibly fatigued during the fourth quarter. In fact, he needed to sub out after logging just 2:40 and returned one minute later. Even with that quick rest, he was pushed around and had his shot blocked three times.
I highly doubt OKC coach Mark Daigneault will increase Holmgren’s minutes again, thus you can figure him to return to his usual allotment of around 27 minutes.
I believe we will see more playing time for center Isaiah Hartenstein, and that will inhibit Holmgren’s production on the glass.
I have a 50-40-1 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Holmgren Under 8.5 rebounds (-105, BetMGM) in Game 4.
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.