It’s the time of year when every baseball fan feels good about their team (except, perhaps, for A’s fans, but we’ll get into that later).

Preseason projections are notoriously fickle, speaking as someone who has tried to pick playoff teams around this time every year.

But the people at Baseball Prospectus make their living with numbers, and right now, the numbers look pretty good for the Yankees, coming off their worst season in decades and an offseason that hasn’t been universally lauded.

According to BP’s PECOTA system, the Yankees are in line for 94.4 wins, roughly six games ahead of the second-place Blue Jays with the defending AL East champion Orioles coming in at just over 86 wins.