Steve Cohen thrilled his fan base by doing so much to honor the Mets’ past last year during the organization’s 60th anniversary season, notably finally retiring Keith Hernandez’s No. 17 and holding the first Old-Timers’ Day since 1994.
Unsurprisingly, there were no commemorations of the 30th anniversary of the 1992 Mets club that became memorialized, in a book by John Harper and Bob Klapisch, as “The Worst Team Money Could Buy.”
Those Mets chased a championship by adding the likes of Bobby Bonilla, Eddie Murray and Bret Saberhagen, swelling their payroll to a then-record $45 million. The 1992 Mets actually began fine, climbing to 21-15 by May 15, but were doomed by receiving less than hoped for from Bonilla, Murray and Saberhagen; a dramatic downturn from lingering 1986 champions Doc Gooden and Howard Johnson; a persistent bad vibe fed by overmatched manager Jeff Torborg; and a clubhouse in constant conflict with reporters.
After David Cone was traded in August, the team finished 72-90. The Mets actually worsened in every way in 1993 — losing 103 games and, among other off-field embarrassments, having Vince Coleman forever tied to firecrackers and Saberhagen to bleach.
Cohen has to hope that belated celebrations for those money-for-nothing teams are not ongoing in 2023. This year, the Mets owner approved the largest payroll ever ($377 million projection for luxury-tax purposes) by, among other items, approving the pairing of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer on individual contracts that totaled $43.33 million, nearly as much as that entire 1992 roster.
The 2023 Mets have not offered off-the-field concerns. But on the field, the worry level is rising. They entered the weekend having lost five straight series — four to soft touches that were expected to help inflate their record: Washington, Detroit, Colorado and Cincinnati. Instead, the record had deflated to 18-20 amid serious questions about depth of the lineup, rotation and bullpen.
At times like these, to avoid being myopic about a team watched daily, I seek two less biased areas: the numbers and outside executives I respect. And both like the Mets more right now than, say, the booing fans at Citi Field do.
Entering the weekend, Baseball Reference still gave the Mets a 52 percent chance to reach the playoffs. But that was their lowest mark of the season, down from a 90.3 percent projection to open the schedule and a season-high 97.1 on April 20, when they were 13-7. Fangraphs had the Mets at 58.7 percent after they were 77.1 percent to open the season.
Of the five executives contacted, none suggested the Mets should be panicking. Most pointed out the lack of quality in the NL — just five teams were over .500 to begin the weekend. They anticipated the positional group becoming more of a force with Starling Marte righting himself, and Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty adding something to a strong nucleus of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo. And they thought between Cohen’s willingness to spend and some intriguing positional prospects, the Mets could problem-solve during the season.
But a constant from all the officials was that while the Mets have not been eliminated, what is gone is the easy lane — the ability to blow beyond 90 wins and coast to a playoff spot even if it is not as a division winner, as happened last year, when the Mets won 101 games.
As one top NL official said, “I would say they recover from their start, but it is hard to envision 90-plus wins without the two Hall of Fame pitchers playing a central role.”
Those pitchers are Scherzer and Verlander, and as another NL executive said, “It was always going to be risky to put so much stock into two 40-year-old starters.” (Scherzer is actually 38.)
In spring training, my calculus about the Mets’ season was that they would win the NL East if Scherzer and Verlander combined for 60 starts and they would make the playoffs easily if they totaled 50 starts. But what happens if that dips to 45 or 40?
At this point, the duo has combined for seven starts. Verlander missed five weeks to begin the year due to a shoulder ailment. Scherzer is battling a back condition that will not let go. The duo can still get to 50 combined. But that would require no more pitstops. Would you bet on that?
Carlos Carrasco, 36, has an 8.56 ERA in three starts and is still on the injured list with an elbow injury. Jose Quintana, 34, is not due to return from a rib injury and make his Mets debut before the second half. David Peterson has taken a step backward. Tylor Megill has not taken a step forward. Kodai Senga is still defining himself in his transition from Japan.
The bullpen likely will be without Edwin Diaz for the season. David Robertson and Drew Smith have been exceptional and Adam Ottavino has been good. But the rest of the pen?
The Mets again lack power beyond Alonso. They were minus-12 in homer differential. That is like losing the turnover or rebounding battle in the NBA: You can win, but it is made all the harder.
The saving graces are time to heal, Cohen’s resources and an NL with currently just six teams with a positive run differential. The Mets are very much like the 19-19 Padres, having increased payroll, expectations and pressure concurrently under accomplished veteran managers (Buck Showalter and Bob Melvin) who have yet to even get to a World Series. The talent and dugout acumen are there for a turnaround. But we probably do know now that it all got more difficult based on the first quarter of the season.
And, for the Mets, the 1992 door at least nudged ajar.