When the Mets send runner to steal a base, it’s because first-base coach Wayne Kirby thinks there is “almost a 99 percent chance” that runner is going to be safe.
Actually, Kirby is underselling the odds, at least when it comes to the success rate over the last 44 games: On Thursday, the Mets extended a franchise record during their 3-2 loss to the Brewers to 35 consecutive stolen bases without getting caught, dating to May 10.
“We’re paying attention to detail,” said Kirby, who oversees base running. “Everything on paper is all about numbers, but each pitcher has a tendency of doing something different that starts the clock early. I try to find that.”
As a contrast to the many disappointing offensive numbers during the first half of the season, the Mets have weaponized the stolen base with a MLB-best 91 percent effectiveness (up from 73.8 percent last season).
Yet nine teams have more than their 61 steals, so it seems like running more frequently could be a way to buy time until their batters are getting more than 7.1 percent of their hits to go for extra bases.
Mark Canha aggressively stole third base with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning Thursday to put the tying run that much closer to scoring, but the Mets failed to get him home.
“Obviously you have to get on base to be aggressive,” right fielder Starling Marte told The Post through an interpreter. “You can’t just run for the sake of running. There’s room to be more aggressive, but you have to be smart about it.”
Manager Buck Showalter attributes the Mets’ success to MLB rule changes that limited the number of times a pitcher can throw to first base during each plate appearance to two before a penalty and introduced a 20-second pitch clock with runners on base.
“The biggest change is pitchers can’t stop people from getting a running lead,” Showalter said. “Guys [used to] sit there and hold the ball until the hitter stepped out and the runner could get no momentum going.”
But all teams are playing with the same rules.
Not all are exploiting them as easily, though some, such as the Rays (99 steals at a 79.2 percent success rate), are employing a quantity-over-quality approach.
“What’s more important?” Showalter asked rhetorically. “To steal 20 more at a bad clip? Or to be very efficient at stealing them?”
Kirby knows Showalter’s answer after working 10 seasons under him.
“I don’t want to give the other team a free out,” Kirby said. “Outs are precious. When I send somebody, I have almost a 99 percent chance he’s going to make that base. Pregame we go over pitchers’ moves and times [to the plate], but everything isn’t etched in stone. I get all my information out on the field because everything looks the same on film.”
Marte (21-for-24), Francisco Lindor (9-for-10) and Tommy Pham (9-for-10) lead the way.
Of the eight players in MLB with more than 20 steals this season, the 34-year-old Marte, who is second among active players with 335 career steals, is the only one older than 28.
“My legs feel really good right now,” said Marte, who had offseason double-groin surgery. “When you know you have that ability, it drives you to continue to work hard. Always being a base-stealer, it hasn’t left me. My focus every time I’m on base is to get into scoring position.”
And the Mets definitely need to steal more runs.