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The Mets will play Game 154 of their season on Friday, long removed from the NL wild-card race and not even in the rear-view mirror of the Braves, who are coasting to another NL East title.
It’s almost hard to believe the two teams finished with identical records a year ago (101-61) with Atlanta winning the division thanks to a tiebreaker.
The Mets went on to lose to the Padres in the wild-card round. The Braves fell to the Phillies in the NLDS during Philadelphia’s surprising run to the World Series.
A year later, the Braves are widely viewed as the best team in the majors — having already clinched a sixth straight division title — and look to be set up for years to come while the Mets are left waiting for new president of baseball operations, David Stearns, to finally take over after the regular season to reshape the organization.
How did the two division rivals get to such different places so quickly?
Even in early June, the Mets seemed in position to shake off a mediocre start to the season.
On June 1, they finished a sweep of the Phillies thanks in part to a fourth straight strong start by Max Scherzer. They were getting contributions from promising rookies Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos.
And they were alone in second place, just 3 ½ games behind the Braves.
What happened next was a seven-game losing streak, part of nine losses in 10 games.
It started innocuously enough as Justin Verlander was outdueled by ex-Met Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays in Queens.
“We’ve been playing pretty good baseball,” Verlander said after the loss. “This was just one of those days. We had good fight, a good game. We were in it the whole way. We didn’t come out on top. It’s not anything to get frustrated about.’’
Things were about to get worse.
In the midst of the losing streak, the Mets were also swept by the Braves, and Pete Alonso was drilled by a pitch from Charlie Morton on June 7.
What was expected to be a 3-4 week injury only ended up being a 10-game absence for the first baseman.
Still, by the time Alonso returned, the Mets were under .500 and 11 ½ games behind Atlanta.
They never threatened again.
Verlander didn’t win a game in June; the Mets won only seven all month.
The Braves, on the other hand, went 27-4 from June 3-July 8.
On their way to what should be their second consecutive 100-win season, the Braves have generated eye-popping offensive numbers. Atlanta leads the majors by wide margins in runs, hits, homers, average, OPS, OPS-plus, you name it. They are on track to become the first team in history to slug at least .500 for a season.
The nightly assault on opposing pitchers has been led by MVP-type performances from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson.
After posting a subpar 2.2 WAR last year (by Fangraphs’ formula) following his comeback from a 2021 ACL tear, Acuña has bounced back to register 7.6 WAR this season, which ranks second in the league (Mookie Betts, 8.1).
And Olson, who had a solid 2022 in his first year with Atlanta following his trade from the A’s to replace Freddie Freeman, has already set the franchise record for home runs in a season (53) and has taken his WAR from 3.2 to 6.2.
That, a roster that sent seven players to the All-Star Game and the continued emergence of Spencer Strider in the rotation has been enough to offset the free-agency loss of shortstop Dansby Swanson, as well a mid-season injury to ace Max Fried.
Meanwhile, almost everyone with the Mets took a step back this season, from Francisco Lindor going from a 6.6 fWAR to 5.5 to Alonso dropping from 3.8 to 2.8 and Brandon Nimmo, in the first year of his mega-deal, has slipped from 5.2 to 4.0.
But the more significant decline came in the rotation.
While the Braves got solid performances — and often much better — from Strider, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder and, when healthy, Fried, the Mets have had just one pitcher meet expectations: Kodai Senga.
Verlander and Scherzer, as well as Jose Quintana (mostly due to a rib fracture discovered during spring training) and Carlos Carrasco, did not provide what the Mets had hoped.
Somewhat alarmingly for Mets fans, the disparity between the two franchises doesn’t appear as if it will change anytime soon. Acuña, Olson and Strider, in addition to Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies are all signed to long-term contracts.
That’s what Stearns will be up against when he takes over next month.
Want to catch a game? The Mets schedule with links to buy tickets can be found here.
Of all the veteran players the Mets dealt away at the trade deadline this season, the one paying the biggest dividends for his new team is probably not the one many would have predicted.
While Scherzer hit the IL with the Rangers, Verlander and Tommy Pham have been inconsistent in Houston and Arizona, respectively, and David Robertson lost his closer’s job in Miami, Mark Canha has been excellent with the Brewers.
Canha left Queens with an OPS of .724, on pace for his lowest mark since 2017 with Oakland. But since arriving in Milwaukee, Canha has an .849 OPS.
He also hit a go-ahead grand slam against Washington on Saturday that put the Brewers closer to another NL Central title.
Though Verlander’s return to the postseason is little surprise, Canha’s role for a surging Brewers team likely isn’t an outcome many following the Mets anticipated.
Speaking of the trade deadline, many of the (potential) prizes for the Mets are still playing at Double-A Binghamton as the Rumble Ponies go on a playoff run.
They’ve caught the attention of Buck Showalter, who last week said, “Some people look at YouTube. I look at [clips from] Binghamton and [Triple-A] Syracuse.”
The Mets’ top four prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, are at Binghamton: infielder Luisangel Acuña (acquired from the Rangers for Scherzer), outfielder Drew Gilbert (acquired from Houston for Velander), shortstop Jett Williams (the Mets’ No. 14 overall pick in 2022) and catcher Kevin Parada (the Mets’ No. 11 overall pick in 2022).
And two of the Mets’ top three pitching prospects are also at Double-A: Blade Tidwell and Christian Scott.
Showalter’s interest isn’t merely the result of the Mets sliding out of the playoff hunt.
“I look all the time,’’ Showalter said. “They’re ours. They’re our future. We’ve got history with them. The people down there are a big part of our organization, the managers and coaches. We’re all in this together.”
One last note: As bad as the season went in Queens, there’s a chance it could have been worse.
Carlos Correa hit the IL with plantar fasciitis in his left foot on Wednesday. The Twins said the shortstop could be ready for the postseason, but it’s another downturn for the shortstop who nearly signed with the Giants — and then the Mets — before ankle worries scared off both teams and he returned to Minnesota on a discounted deal.
Correa is having the worst offensive season of his career — outside of COVID-shortened 2020 — with a .711 OPS. He turned 29 on Friday.