The Rays are coming.
For a week and a day, from this coming Thursday to the following one, the best team in MLB will be in New York. Four games in The Bronx. Day off. Three games in Queens. By the end of that stretch, we should not only have a better feel for who the Yankees and Mets are in 2023, but also for who the Rays are versus history.
Because as one NL executive told me, “They legitimately could win 115 games.” The math is trending toward momentous. After beating the Yankees on Friday night, the Rays were 27-6 — the third-best start in the Modern Era (since 1900). No team in the Modern Era tops Tampa Bay’s 18-2 start at home.
The math screams dominance. Think about the differentials here: The Rays led the majors in both most homers hit (69) and fewest allowed (21). Their starters (3.05) and relievers (2.74) led in ERA while their hitters led in OPS (.877) — by the way, that is a whole team OPS, which was 14 points higher than the .863 Yankees-best of Aaron Judge. Their hitters led in each slash line category: .277/.344/.528, and so did their pitchers .206/.283/.320.
Plus, the Rays were tied for fifth in both steals and defensive runs saved.
In a text-message exchange Thursday after his previously high-flying Pirates had been swept in three games in St. Petersburg, Fla., by a combined 15-4, Pittsburgh manager Derek Shelton wrote: “By far the best team in baseball. They can beat you offensively with the bats, their feet and with their approach. They swing at strikes, and when they swing, they drive the ball. They have the deepest offensive group they had in years, and they catch the ball.”
Their offense is a differentiator for these Rays, who long have been appreciated for elite run prevention, whether by using openers or emphasizing gloves. This version sets up as the best offense in their history, but also maybe more than just their history.
These Rays have a collective 147 OPS-plus. The best over a full season by a modern team is the 127 of the 1927 Yankees. And once you start sharing sentences with the 1927 Yankees — even five-plus weeks into the season — you are touching rare air.
Familiarly, the Rays still gain platoon advantages with, say, lefty hitters, such as Josh Lowe and Luke Raley, against righty pitching. But more and more, they have a terrific everyday core: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz and Wander Franco all likely would finish top-10 in an AL MVP vote right now.
Is it sustainable?
The simple answer is no, because through Friday, Tampa Bay was on a 133-win pace. But how about bettering the franchise record of 100 wins in 2021? Or the MLB record of 116 wins by the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners (neither of which won the World Series, by the way)?
The early critique was that the Rays had an easy schedule when they broke out 13-0 against the Tigers, Nationals, Athetics and Red Sox — though Boston is currently far better than its projections. The current Yankees series, though, began this 23-game block: the Orioles, the seven-game Bronx-Queens tour, the Brewers, Blue Jays and Dodgers.
“They are really good, probably a top-five team,” one AL executive said, “but they have played over their heads with an easy schedule. Over this stretch, they’ll come back to earth.”
But keep in mind that in May the Blue Jays (.622 going into the weekend) and Orioles (.565) had a tougher strength of schedule by opponents’ winning percentage than the Rays (.564), who were barely ahead of the Yankees (.559). And via Tankathon.com, the top three toughest schedules remaining this year belong to the Blue Jays (.534), Orioles (.533) and Yankees (.527). The Rays were fifth at .515.
Tampa Bay GM Peter Bendix, on “The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman” podcast, recently noted that the return to a balanced schedule should work to the Rays’ benefit — with two fewer series each against the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees. It will be harder to blow a lead with fewer games against common opponents — in this case within by far the majors’ toughest division.
Another AL executive wondered about depth, particularly offensively, if the Rays were to take on injuries. But an NL executive noted, “They have the minor league system to go add an impact piece at the deadline should they chose to do so.” Plus, this is an organization that has mastered maximizing what they have.
Spotrac has the Rays’ $74 million payroll as the third-lowest in MLB. But that is salary, not value. In open bidding, how much would players such as Arozarena, Franco and Shane McClanahan fetch? If you made the Yankees’ best 26-man roster and the Rays’ best 26-man roster all free agents, who would have the higher payroll?
Additionally, the Rays have done a lot to guard against collective downturn in production. Only Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Milwaukee have not had a plate appearance from a player in his age-32 or older season this year (the Yankees and Dodgers have a MLB-high six). The only pitchers 32 or older are recent emergency pickups Chase Anderson and Heath Hembree, a duo that actually speaks to the Rays’ ingenuity and fortitude. They combined in a moment of pitching crisis for 4 ¹/₃ shutout innings to date.
The Rays began the season with starting pitching as a strength, but key lefty Jeffrey Springs needed Tommy John surgery and Tyler Glasnow has yet to pitch due to a strained oblique. Tampa Bay received both strong starting work from top prospect Taj Bradley and also morphed seamlessly back to using openers.
No surprise really. This is a resourceful, thoughtful, tough-minded organization. The players bond well behind a David versus Goliath ethos. There is a lot of continuity despite a low payroll. This is not a fly-by-night success.
Tampa Bay has a .592 winning percentage since 2018 — only the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees are better.
They were over .800 in 2023 entering the weekend. It is why everyone in the AL East is chasing the Rays while they just might be chasing history.