Wednesday night’s most significant college basketball matchup features No. 12 Texas battling No. 8 Marquette at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

This is Shaka Smart’s first game against his former team since leaving Forty Acres in 2021.

But Texas head coach Rodney Terry has been doing just fine, leading his ‘Horns to a 6-1 record this season after reaching the Elite Eight last year. 

I think Marquette rolls in the Shaka Smart bowl, and I’m laying the points with the Golden Eagles on Wednesday night. 

(via BetMGM)

(8 p.m. ET. TNT)

I’m primarily playing Marquette because of the situational spot. 

Texas has played a laughable schedule. The Longhorns have faced precisely one KenPom top-150 team, Connecticut, where they lost by double-digits. This is also their first true road game. 

Not only that, but Texas hasn’t even played that well. The ‘Horns are 6-1 straight=up but 2-5 against the spread, failing to cover against teams like Rice and Texas State while beating the pathetic Louisville Cardinals by one point after closing as 17.5-point favorites.

The Longhorns’ early-season struggles make sense. Terry had to replace three starters and two key reserve pieces from last year’s team, with incoming transfers Max Abmas and Kadin Shedrick adjusting to their new team. 

Returning production is monumental in early-season college basketball handicapping. The teams with more continuity generally beat those with less in November and December. 

Is this fresh-faced Texas team ready for a bump in competition in a hostile environment? I doubt it. 

Meanwhile, Marquette is a well-rounded, experienced team that returned four starters from last year’s Big East Championship squad, and sixth man David Joplin has slid seamlessly into Oliver-Maxence Prosper’s old power forward spot. 

And the Golden Eagles have run through a gauntlet. They’ve played five KenPom top-40 teams, including three ranked in the top 15. They’ve played none of those games at home and already beat Illinois on the road by seven. 

We can also bet on a bounce-back from Marquette after a tough road loss to Wisconsin and a brutal three-point neutral-court loss to Purdue. I expect the Eagles to come out with their hair on fire in a semi-desperation spot. 

These guys are vets and have been tested early, and playing Texas at home will be a relative cakewalk. 

From an on-the-court schematic perspective, I don’t mind the matchup for Marquette. 

The Eagles’ perimeter defenders are pressing and playing more actively than ever before, and I could see that bothering Abmas and Tyrese Hunter in the backcourt. 

Texas likes to score on the interior, running handoff, cuts and post-up sets to generate near-perimeter shots.

However, Marquette’s aggressive perimeter defense has been denying opponents the ability to get the ball in the paint or at the rim, and the Eagles’ post-up defense has been surprisingly adept this year (.75 PPP allowed, 70th percentile among D-I teams). 

I don’t think Texas will get the shots it wants against Marquette’s athleticism. 

On the other end of the court, the key to stopping Marquette is stopping Shaka’s ball-screen offense. 

The Eagles run one of the nation’s most inventive, explosive pick-and-roll offenses. Tyler Kolek is a mastermind facilitator of those sets, Oso Ighodaro is a dynamic interior scorer and great back-door-cutting passer out of those sets and Kam Jones is among the nation’s best spot-up shooters off those sets. 

Behind those three, the Eagles go around the horn until they find an open shot. It’s almost impossible to stop. 

Unfortunately for the ‘Horns, Texas ranks 323rd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (1.02) by ShotQuality’s metrics, which bodes very poorly against The Fighting Shakas. 

It’s also worth mentioning that I give a significant coaching advantage to Smart over Terry. I think Shaka can out-scheme this young opposing coach in this top-25 matchup. 

But, ultimately, I think this is a tremendous situational spot for Marquette to bounce back with a big win in front of the home crowd, and I’m betting the Eagles take advantage of an unproven Texas squad. 

At anything less than 10, I’ll lay the points with Marquette. 

Marquette -8 (-110) at Bet365 | Play to -9.5 (-110)