The SEC-ACC Challenge rolls on as the North Carolina Tar Heels host the Tennessee Volunteers on Wednesday night in Chapel Hill. 

North Carolina is an immensely talented team that just took down Arkansas by 15, but I’m unsure if the Heels are ready to battle with the Vols’ interior toughness and physicality. 

I’m backing the Vols here in this top college basketball matchup. 

This is your typical North Carolina team. The Heels run the court with RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan and play through Armando Bacot in the post. 

But Rick Barnes’ Vols are impossibly tough on defense. 

They allow only four transition points per game, which ranks top 10 nationally.

They also rank far above average in post-up PPP allowed (0.78, 62nd percentile) and paint points per game allowed (27, 83rd percentile). 

Center Jonas Aidoo is a rock-solid interior defender, and the Vols are the nation’s best on-ball and gap defense. They are physical on the interior, which North Carolina could struggle with. 

Additionally, Tennessee is coming off back-to-back games against Purdue and Kansas, where the Vols battled Zach Edey and Hunter Dickinson.

Surprisingly, battling Bacot might be a step down in competition, and they’ll have two extra days of rest over the Heels to prepare (Tennessee last played seven days ago, while North Carolina played Friday). 

On the other side of the court, Tennessee has had its offensive struggles this year. 

That said, the Vols should generate buckets from secondary and off-ball actions against North Carolina. 

The Vols run off-screen sets at the 14th-highest rate nationally, as it’s the primary way for Barnes to get the ball into Dalton Knecht’s hands. He’s Tennessee’s most dynamic offensive weapon, scoring 17.5 points per game on 45% / 38% / 82% splits.

Meanwhile, North Carolina has been shredded by off-screen sets, allowing the second-most off-screen points per game. The Tar Heels are at a size disadvantage on the wing – Knecht and Josiah-Jordan James are lengthier than Ryan and Harrison Ingram – which could sink their half-court defense on Wednesday night. 

Also, I think the Vols have a significant coaching advantage here. Barnes is experienced, and Hubert Davis has looked shaky outside of that miraculous Final Four run.

Tennessee beat North Carolina by 17 when these teams met two seasons ago in the ACC-SEC challenge, with the Vols holding the Heels to 12-for-32 shooting from 2-point range while forcing 13 turnovers. 

I expect a similar result this time around. 

Although I expect the Vols to win outright, I’ll happily grab the +2.5 (-110) available at BetMGM. Projection systems make this game closer to a Pick’Em, with the ShotQualityBets model projecting Tennessee as a short favorite. 

There are three points of value at the current market number. 

Tennessee +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM | Play to PK (-110)