This line feels a bit fishy.
No. 24 TCU (3-0) has yet to put a foot wrong in 2025, and a win over in-state rivals SMU last weekend vaulted the Horned Frogs into the Top 25 for the first time since the 2023 preseason poll.
TCU is now the third-favorite to win the Big 12 behind Texas Tech (+220) and Friday’s opponent, Arizona State (+500).
Despite a disappointing loss to Mississippi State in Week 2, the Sun Devils (3-1) are getting plenty of respect from the betting market as a 2.5-point favorite against TCU.
That price suggests a game between these two teams on a neutral field would be priced as a coin flip.
This is one of the best quarterback matchups of the season so far.
Sam Leavitt burst onto the scene in 2024, leading the Sun Devils into the College Football Playoff as a massive long shot.
Leavitt’s play hasn’t been up to last season’s standard through the first four games of 2025, but we know he’s a potential game-wrecker and, against most opponents, is the A-side of the QB showdown.
However, TCU isn’t most opponents.
The Horned Frogs showed signs of returning to glory late in 2024 thanks to the play of Josh Hoover, who burst onto the scene with 3,949 passing yards and 27 touchdown passes.
Hoover has carried that form into the new season, lighting up UNC, Abilene Christian and SMU for 1,000 yards and 11 touchdown passes.
Hoover is 15/1 to win the Heisman at BetMGM, making him the sixth-favorite.
Arizona State’s offense has the ability to go off, but the Sun Devils have been pedestrian against the pass, which will put a lot of pressure on Leavitt to keep up with Hoover and the Horned Frogs.
It feels like the wrong team is favored in this Big 12 showdown, so I’ll take a shot on TCU to get out of Tempe with the win.
The Play: TCU (+126, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.