After Super Bowl 2024, before the confetti hits the Allegiant Stadium Bermuda turf, 16 writers and broadcasters will cast their vote for the game’s MVP. 

Since that counts for 80 percent of the total vote, this select group will essentially determine how a large slice of the billions wagered on Super Bowl 58 will change hands.

Of the 23 winners since 2001, when the NFL allowed fans to have a 20 percent say, 14 have been quarterbacks (60.9 percent), five were wide receivers (21.8 percent) and the remaining four played defense (17.4 percent).

There’s an oddity this year in that Patrick Mahomes is listed with the shortest odds (+120, BetMGM) even though the 49ers are currently a 1.5-point favorite. Brock Purdy is second with +220 odds.

So, if you bet on Mahomes, you’re betting on the Chiefs pulling off the small upset (or you’re a conspiracy theorist who believes the NFL has already scripted Travis Kelce proposing to Taylor Swift at midfield after a Kansas City victory).  

And if you bet on Purdy, you’re envisioning him throwing for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in a win, something he’s done just four times in 18 games this season.

For our money, Christian McCaffrey is not only the best value with +450 odds, but also a logical choice for a player on a team that is expected to win.

He has four touchdowns in the playoffs, giving him 25 in 18 games.

While the Chiefs held the Ravens to 81 rushing yards on Sunday, Baltimore was forced to pass in the second half after falling behind early.

A week prior, the Chiefs gave up 180 rushing yards and nearly five yards per carry to Buffalo — more typical of their performance during the regular season (27th in rush defense DVOA, 28th in EPA per rush). 

Being equally impactful on the ground and through the air, McCaffrey can beat you in different ways, giving him two paths to MVP.

THE PLAY: Christian McCaffrey to win Super Bowl MVP (+450, BetMGM).