The CAA Tournament title matchup is set and, in a surprising turn of events, 10th-seeded Stony Brook is one game away from the NCAA Tournament. 

The Seawolves have won three games in three days, including a double-overtime win over Drexel in the quarterfinals. 

The rotation could be gassed. 

However, I quite like how the Seawolves match up with the top-seeded Charleston Cougars, and I expect this game to come down to the wire. 

(7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)

The Seawolves are a rim-based team on both ends of the court. 

That works against them defensively in this matchup, given Charleston’s five-out spread motion offense that takes and makes 3s at a high rate.

In the first head-to-head matchup in early January, the Cougars shot a scorching 13-for-29 (45%) from deep. 

However, Stony Brook’s isolation-and-post offense destroyed Charleston’s exploitable interior defense. The Seawolves scored 31 points at the rim, including 24 on 14 post-up sets, suitable for a ridiculous 1.7 PPP. 

Aaron Clarke cooked with ball-screen dribble penetration (20 points on 20 pick-and-roll sets), while Tyler Stephenson-Moore consistently won isolation mismatches (nine points on 10 isolation sets). 

So, despite Charleston’s flamethrowing, the Cougars only won by six as 6.5-point road ‘dogs. 

And I’m more bullish on their chances Tuesday 

Shooting at the Entertainment & Sports Arena has been challenging. Teams have shot a combined 30% from 3 in 12 CAA Tournament games, so perhaps there’s something up with the rims down in D.C.

Ultimately, that’s really helped Stony Brook, which has leveraged its dribble penetration and interior creation to surge toward the championship game. 

Meanwhile, it hurts the Cougars, who barely escaped the semi-final game against Towson behind 7-for-23 (30%) 3-point shooting. 

While Stony Brook allows plenty of jumpers, the Seawolves are surprisingly good at closing out. They rank fourth in the conference in Open 3 Rate allowed and closed out on 16 of Charleston’s 24 (67%) catch-and-shoot opportunities in the first head-to-head matchup.

Charleston managed a whopping 12 points on those eight unguarded jumpers, an unsustainable 1.5 PPP, which should regress in the rematch. 

Meanwhile, I don’t expect Stony Brook to see much regression with its interior-based creation. Charleston’s consistently struggled to defend the post (0.91 PPP allowed, 11th in CAA) all year, ultimately ranking ninth in the conference in two-point shooting allowed (51%). 

I think the Seawolves have all the tools to put a scare into Charleston in the championship game, and I’m more than willing to grab a double-digit spread. 

Stony Brook +10 (-110, DraftKings)