As Carrie Underwood sings every week just minutes before kickoff, “Waiting all day for Sunday night!”
But to be honest, unless you like a low-scoring grudge match or are a fan of the teams, then the Week 3 prime-time bout between the Steelers and Raiders isn’t going to knock your socks off. It’s going to be an ugly one, with plenty of running and defense reigning supreme.
When you look at this Steelers team, they’re fortunate to sit at 1-1. It’s all defense and no offense. Last week, they opened the game with a pick-six and took a lead they never relinquished on a strip-sack fumble return late in the fourth.
In the end, the Pittsburgh defense scored more points than the offense.
Despite preseason reports and high praise for Kenny Pickett, the Steelers’ offense has looked out of sorts.
And that’s putting it nicely. Pro Football Focus ranks them as the league’s worst offense. No Diontae Johnson leaves Pickett’s receiving options thin, and the offensive line couldn’t block a parked car.
Pickett has been sacked seven times in two games. On 41.7 percent of his dropbacks, he has been pressured by the opposition. The next worst? The Jets at 33.3 percent. PFF gives the Steelers’ pass blocking a grade of 25.1, and their run blocking is third-worst at 41.1.
There’s a lot of work to be done on offense. The second-leading receiver in Pittsburgh is currently backup running back Jaylen Warren. Budding superstar George Pickens can only do so much, as current WR2 Allen Robinson has once again been rendered ineffective.
So go out for dinner or turn on Netflix and binge watch the newest series. Heck, even go to bed early! This game sets up to be a snoozefest.
Even against a weak Las Vegas defense, this Pittsburgh offense, which ranks dead last in DVOA, is expected to once again struggle. The same could be said for the Raiders, who sit just seven rungs higher in DVOA.
Aside from Davante Adams, the rest of the Raiders, specifically Josh Jacobs, have struggled. After holding out for much of the offseason, Jacobs signed a one-year deal worth $12 million dollars. Since his return, he has averaged just 1.6 yards per carry.
It’s not the Raiders’ run blocking either. They have graded out around league average, per PFF. Jacobs has just struggled against the Broncos and Bills.
On the bright side, and one that could lead to sustaining longer drives, Jakobi Meyers likely will return to the Raiders’ lineup after he missed Week 2 with a concussion. He and Adams combined for 147 of Jimmy Garoppolo’s 200 passing yards in the season-opening 17-16 win at Denver.
I expect Las Vegas to slow down the game and try to control the pace at home. It is 27th in seconds-per-snap, and despite a negative game script in a blowout against Buffalo, the Raiders still sit inside the top 10 in rush percentage.
These offenses are not flashy. Neither quarterback is capable of running an effective no-huddle offense and taking deep shots, like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen do, rather they’re best suited for a slowed-down game. Though Las Vegas has the upper hand on offense, Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to prove disruptive, as it did against a dominant Browns offensive line.
Life’s not too short to bet an Under. If you want trends, I’ve got them, too. Since the 2016 season, Pittsburgh is 62.4 percent to the Under when playing on Sundays. That’s a 21.4 percent ROI.
And per colleague Evan Abrams, Mike Tomlin is the most profitable head coach to the Under when on the road (56%).
Don’t think twice about it. Back the Under (43) on “Sunday Night Football.”