Rick Pitino has made headlines last week after St. John’s blew a 19-point lead to Seton Hall and all but ended their postseason hopes.
He criticized the team and called them too unathletic to defend.
Despite that, the Johnnies went on the road Wednesday and dropped 90 points on lowly Georgetown — though it was a bit alarming that SJU once led by 21 in the eventual five-point win.
Sunday will be most telling whether Pitino has lost the locker room, as St. John’s returns to Madison Square Garden to face off with No. 15 Creighton.
This is the perfect let-down spot for Creighton.
Though the Jays are playing the best basketball they have all season, it’s their latest win — a 19-point blowout over No. 1 Connecticut — that leads me to backing the volatile Johnnies.
That was Creighton’s biggest win of the season, and now they hit the road to take on the lowly Johnnies.
It’s easy to overlook Pitino’s squad, especially when factoring in the growing frustrations.
Just over a month ago, these two teams squared off in Omaha, Neb.
The Johnnies nearly pulled off the upset despite shooting 18 percent from 2-point range and allowing 21 free-throw attempts to Creighton, a team that does not frequently get to the line.
A lot has changed since then, but the fact remains the same: These two teams went punch-for-punch in a rock fight in which Creighton eked out a one-point win.
Yes, this Creighton offense is no joke. They’re 10th in the country in adjusted efficiency and shoot the 3 on nearly half of all attempts.
Baylor Scheierman has taken a significant step forward in his second season with the Jays, averaging a career-best 18.4 points per game.
They primarily run the offense through the pick-and-roll with 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner being the screen setter — which leads to plenty of catch-and-shoot 3s or mid-range jumpers.
Surprisingly, this is not an offense that attacks the rim at a high rate (28 percent).
But Creighton rarely creates second-chance opportunities or free-throw trips (350th in FTA/FGA). That is a plus for the Johnnies, who struggle in both those facets of the game.
When looking at this matchup, Creighton wants St. John’s to operate where it is most comfortable — in the midrange.
The Jays’ deployment of the “Kalk drop” funnels opponents off the perimeter and inside the paint, where Kalkbrenner awaits.
He sits low and guards the rim, daring opponents to shoot midrange jumpers (25 percent of attempts against Creighton come from there).
The Johnnies, like Creighton, use the pick-and-roll with Daniss Jenkins as the primary ball handler.
They mostly attack in the midrange and are elite on the glass — sixth in offensive rebounding (38.7 percent).
What is most critical is how Joel Soriano plays.
He was a ghost against Connecticut and Marquette (eight points, nine rebounds combined), and the Johnnies often go as he does.
He is top-five in Big East play in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and a strong rim protector. When playing well,
Soriano is a huge piece in SJU’s success in the pick-and-roll, too.
Tack on RJ Luis’ breakout of late, and so long as the Johnnies play without spite to Pitino, I expect them to keep this game close with a chance of a full-blown upset.
I believe the Johnnies are worth a look despite everything that is going on.
This is a perfect let-down spot for Creighton, fresh off a win against a No. I team – it was an emotional win and the pinnacle of their season. Now is the time to fade them while the market and public ride a short road favorite.
For what it’s worth, teams at home as an underdog of four or less — Kenpom projects this St. John’s +3 — against a ranked opponent have a 54 percent record AT’S and 4.5 percent ROI.