St. John’s has eliminated its margin for error.
Any breathing room it had is gone.
Five losses in six games have given the Johnnies no more leeway for the NCAA Tournament.
They have gone from safely in the tournament to right on the cutline, three established Bracketologists — Brad Wachtel of Facts & Bracks, Lukas Harkins of Heat Check CBB and Dominic Lese of Bracketometry — told The Post.
“I would say they’re 50/50 [if the teams were getting selected] today,” Wachtel said. “I feel good about them being the last team in right now, but every day things change.”
All three currently have St. John’s (13-9, 5-6) in the tournament at the moment, but among the last four teams in.
They are by no means comfortable.
Their résumé needs improvement.
Coach Rick Pitino’s team lacks a marquee win and has just two victories over at-large teams — Utah at a neutral site and Butler at home — in the field.
St. John’s only has one bad loss, at home over disappointing Michigan, and its NET ranking of 43 — the tool the selection committee uses the most to assess teams — is solid for a bubble team. The Red Storm’s 2-7 record in Quad 1 games (the highest quality of victory based on the NET rankings) needs improvement, but their 5-1 mark in Quad 2 games is an asset that has kept them in the mix, according to Lese, the top-rated Bracketologist last year.
“Adding more quantity will keep those résumé metrics in pretty good standing,” Harkins said. “Sometimes all it is is just the one elite win that gives a team an edge. But look at Florida for example. If at Kentucky is its only Quad 1 win the rest of the year, and St. John’s doesn’t have a win of that level, but it has four Quad 1 wins compared to Florida’s one, the edge would flip to St. John’s even without a great, great win at the top.”
What St. John’s can ill afford is a loss to one of the Big East’s woeful duo of Georgetown and DePaul. It will face each team twice, starting with DePaul on Tuesday at UBS Arena.
Those are potential landmines.
Of course, those two teams have combined to win only one league game all year, and it was Georgetown knocking off DePaul at home by three.
Otherwise, opportunities to improve the résumé are there.
A trip to seventh-ranked Marquette on Saturday is the most obvious one. The Golden Eagles beat the Johnnies by one at the Garden recently.
A home game against No. 19 Creighton at MSG on Feb. 25 is another potential needle-mover. There are also Quad 1 chances against Providence and Butler on the road and Seton Hall at home, which is a Quad 2 contest.
A 3-2 record in those games would likely be enough. Even two wins in those five contests might suffice, as long as they don’t lose to Georgetown and DePaul.
“Adding two more quality wins and no more bad losses on the résumé, I think that’s probably enough barring a bad loss then in the Big East Tournament,” Lese said. “Even if they get the two that are against Butler and Providence that aren’t the high-, high-level wins, that’s still two more Quad 1 wins on the résumé. You get both of those and beat all the other teams you’re supposed to, then I think even without that high-level win, they’re fine.”
Interestingly, Wachtel singled out one Big East team as significant for St. John’s path to the tournament.
The Johnnies swept Villanova, which at the time was considered significant. But the Wildcats have struggled of late, falling out of tournament projections.
However, they did wallop Providence on Sunday. Villanova playing its way back into the field would be important.
“I think they will get in ultimately, which is going to benefit St. John’s,” Wachtel said. “What’s important? Wins over at-large teams, wins over tourney teams.”
In the end, St. John’s has to start stacking wins.
The last few weeks haven’t ruined its tournament chances, but it has hurt them. All along, the thought was that the back end of the league schedule was in the Johnnies’ favor. It has to take advantage of that slate.