Victor Wembanyama’s sophomore campaign kicks off on Thursday night when the San Antonio Spurs face off against Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks.

Wembanyama posted 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game on just shy of 47% shooting from the floor in a successful rookie season in which he failed to get much help from the rest of the Spurs roster.

San Antonio made notable changes in the offseason that improved its roster, including the signing of veteran Chris Paul, who should help alleviate the guard play issues that haunted the Spurs last season.

Here’s a breakdown of Thursday night’s Texas showdown between the Spurs and Mavs with a prediction and pick.

Dante Exum will miss the game for Dallas after undergoing wrist surgery a few weeks ago, while the Spurs will be without tough shot-maker Devin Vassell, who was objectively the second-best player for them last season.

Even without Vassell on the floor, San Antonio still has options to replace him, including rookie Stephon Castle, a 6-foot-7 combo guard who provides switchability on the defensive end of the floor, and playmaking and scoring on the other end.

Castle impressed in the preseason, posting 11 points, 3.6 assists and 2.4 rebounds in just over 20 minutes per game. Those PER 36s averages would rival plenty of veteran starters in the league.

Besides Castle and Paul, the Spurs will also roll out the Jeremy Sochan-Wembanyama combination, which will undoubtedly be one of the peskiest defensive frontcourt duos in the NBA this season. 

Further, Harrison Barnes also provides a steady veteran presence in the small forward slot to add secondary scoring.

Depth is a bit of an issue for San Antonio, but coach Gregg Popovich won’t be shy in playing his starters a healthy amount of minutes this season, as there is an outside chance the Spurs could contend for a playoff spot in Wembanyama’s second season.

Meanwhile, Mavs coach Jason Kidd has stated he’d like to give his veterans more rest after Doncic averaged 37.5 minutes last season and Irving 35 minutes.

That could result in more backdoor covers for opponents this season with those two coming off the floor late in games.

The Spurs will be undervalued for at least a few games at the beginning of the season, and I’m still not entirely sold on the Mavericks being a true championship-caliber team.

This is a good spot to take San Antonio and the points. 

Pick: Spurs +7.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.