A case could be made that Shohei Ohtani just had the three greatest seasons in major league history.
That might be true if he simply had both hit and pitched on an average level simultaneously, considering how difficult it is to be even just good at one or the other.
But from 2021-23, Ohtani has a 2.84 ERA and has struck out a MLB-best (400 innings minimum) 31.4 percent of those he faced while hitting the second-most homers (129-124 behind Aaron Judge). Only Corbin Burnes (.576) has held batters to a lower OPS than Ohtani’s .602.
Going into Sunday, only Judge (1.019) has a higher OPS than Ohtani’s .967 (minimum 1,000 plate appearances).
Oh, by the way, Ohtani is tied for the most triples in that time and is 16th in steals.
So pitch like Burnes, hit like Judge, run like the wind. One human.
Which brings us to this counterintuitive — no baseball operations department should recommend signing the greatest player to a record contract unless the owner:
- Said there was no other choice.
- Promised separate payrolls – one as if Ohtani were not on the roster and then the one for Ohtani.
No. 1 is pretty self-explanatory.
Ohtani might be worth so much in marketing, status, etc. that ownership is willing to go to a record contract-plus. The Angels have never publicly provided how much extra Ohtani is worth annually. The value would fluctuate from franchise to franchise. But every organization also must calculate how much less it might be if Ohtani is only hitting for a long period while healing from a torn elbow ligament and what it might be worth if his performance inevitably dips as he ages (Ohtani turns 30 next July).
The second item – two separate payrolls – would be necessary even if Ohtani were capable of being a two-way player next season. Because as valuable as that is, you are building a roster and payroll around a once-a-week starter who also is a DH.
Let’s for this argument say a team has a $200 million payroll and Ohtani costs $50 million annually. It can’t be $150 million plus Ohtani. It has to be $200 million plus Ohtani’s $50 million.
Because having Ohtani in your rotation means needing a whole rotation besides him. He never pitches on four days’ rest. So you have to have five other starters, which is difficult to navigate for every team.
If one or more veteran starters demand to pitch on four days’ rest, it entails a lot of manipulation to work around Ohtani. Plus, having six starters in total means operating with one fewer reliever than standard.
Also, in the best of times, Ohtani is an everyday DH. So, the payroll must afford eight position players while handcuffing a manager that he cannot rotate regulars through the DH slot for a pseudo rest day. Anyone just adding Ohtani’s Wins Above Replacement as a pitcher and a hitter, without adjusting for what else is needed to allow him to do both, does not have the right formula.
And if Ohtani needs a second Tommy John surgery, he will miss the beginning of next season as even just a hitter and all of it as a pitcher. Plus, it took Ohtani basically two seasons to return from his first Tommy John procedure. So anyone assuming he will pitch again in 2025 might be ambitious, considering the standard rehab will be disrupted by him hitting next season.
If Tommy John is needed, that will be five years between the first and second. How long would you guess-timate between the second and third? Would he even get a third?
I also think it is ambitious to assume that Ohtani will move seamlessly to the outfield if he no longer can pitch. Obviously, he has the athleticism at present to be an elite outfielder. But what is the warranty on an outfield arm if it needs two Tommy John procedures? There is a not zero chance that a team this offseason will be buying a DH for the majority of a contract.
I hope not. Ohtani is great for the sport. I hope he doesn’t need the surgery and, if he does, that he heals well as an elite two-way player again. Heck, I hope a New York team signs him — it’s not my money and I would love to watch him play daily.
But what shouldn’t be ignored for those spending the money is that concurrently with announcing the elbow tear Wednesday for Ohtani, the Angels put Mike Trout back on the injured list with continued soreness from a previously broken left hand. Trout was long the best player in the game and presently has the largest contract ($426.5 million). But he no longer makes it through seasons without missing significant time.
The next day it was revealed Stephen Strasburg was retiring. He was once considered the greatest draft amateur pitcher ever and signed a seven-year, $245 million contract after being essential to the Nationals’ 2019 title. He will retire having made eight total starts on that pact.
These long contracts feel great the day they are signed. They are generally a bad idea because of the risk — and as great as Ohtani is, he also is a great risk, especially as a two-way player.
No organization should sign him without an owner committed to investing in a roster as if Ohtani were not there.