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NY Post
New York Post
21 Oct 2023

NextImg:RFK Jr. unlikely to shake up 2024 presidential race, poll shows

Presidential long-shot Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s run as an independent candidate for president is unlikely to have a significant impact on the 2024 race, a new poll found.

After Kennedy ditched the Democratic primary race to campaign as an independent earlier this month, political experts suggested the environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine advocate could peel off voters looking for an alternative to President Joe Biden, along with COVID-19 vaccine skeptics who would otherwise back Republican front-runner and former President Donald Trump.

A Yahoo News/YouGov online survey of 1,675 U.S. adults found, however, that Biden would maintain a razor-thin 1-point lead over former Trump — whether or not Kennedy continues his independent bid for the White House. 

Without Kennedy running, Biden beats Trump 44% to 43% among registered voters, the survey conducted Oct. 12 to Oct. 16 found.

With Kennedy in the race as an independent, he manages to woo 9% of voters.

A new poll found President Biden would beat former President Trump in the 2024 presidential elections whether or not Kennedy runs as an independent.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks into a microphone while standing in front of signs for his 2024 independent campaign.
Given the choice of Biden, Trump or an independent candidate, 9% of respondents said they would vote for the independent candidate.

But because he pulls voters from both parties, that still leaves Biden squeaking by on top, at 40% to Trump’s 39%.

Even 9%, however, may be overstating his impact: when the survey did not name Kennedy and asked respondents to choose Trump, Biden and “another candidate,” whose name they had to enter, only 1% wrote in for Kennedy. 

“This far out, especially given the wide gulf between Kennedy’s open-ended (1%) and prompted (9%) support, the former is likely a better measure of those currently planning to vote for Kennedy than the latter,” YouGov pollster Mark Blumenthal told Yahoo News