Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck nationally in fresh post-Democratic National Convention polling that indicates Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent exit slightly benefits the Republican.
Trump eked out a narrow advantage over Harris 49% to 48% in a one-on-one matchup, but the vice president came out on top 47% to 45% when third-party candidates were added to the mix, per an Echelon Insights survey.
Kennedy, who suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump last Friday, nabbed 4% support, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver each at 1%. An exact number for Independent Cornel West was not provided.
When Kennedy was taken out of the fray, Trump gained about three percentage points to tie Harris at 48% apiece, followed by Stein, Oliver and West each at 1%.
Trump’s allies have been hoping Kennedy’s so-called “suspending” but “not terminating” of his campaign, as well as withdrawal from the ballot in about 10 competitive states, could give him a much desired boost.
Kennedy is set to remain on the ballot in a slew of less competitive states.
The Democratic National Committee downplayed the development and doled out a memo from adviser Ramsey Reid that ticked through various data points and concluded his exit changes “nothing.”
Emblematic of polarization in the country, 52% of respondents deemed the “Biden-Harris administration” mostly a failure (15%) or a total failure (37%), while 45% called it mostly a success (28%) or a total success (17%), according to Echelon Insights.
When Harris was dropped from the question and voters were asked specifically about the “Biden administration” they grew a touch more positive, with 52% saying it was either a total failure (35%) or mostly a failure (17%), while 46% called it a total success (15%) or mostly a success (31%).
Asked about Trump, 50% either strongly or somewhat approved of his job performance as president, compared to 49% who disapproved.
Meanwhile, 50% either strongly or somewhat approved of Harris’ job performance as vice president, while 48% disapproved.
Harris’ job performance ratings had long been underwater until she replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Biden’s approval rating clocked in at 43% somewhat or strongly approving him and 55% somewhat or strongly disapproving.
A sizeable 89% of voters said they were extremely (77%) or very (12%) motivated to vote in the Nov. 5 election, while 4% were not very (2%) or not at all (2%) motivated to cast their votes.
The Echelon Insights survey sampled 1,031 voters from Aug. 23–25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Trump’s allies have dubbed Harris’ polling growth in the weeks that followed Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from the race a “honeymoon” and a “sugar high.” Harris has fashioned herself as the “underdog” in the race.
Some top advisers to Trump told reporters last week they believe that her “honeymoon” had largely leveled out by the time the Democrats convened in Chicago.
At the moment, Harris has a 1.5 percentage point lead against Trump national in a one-on-one matchup, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.
In a five-way national race, her lead expands to 2 percentage points in the RCP aggregate, though that largely still includes Kennedy.
Battleground state polling has given even more mixed results, but Trump is up in the RCP’s no-tossup projection map.