House Republicans have started holding hearings on everything from the border to Biden-family corruption to “weaponization” of federal law enforcement. But the big battle of the year will inevitably be over spending, wrapped up in the need to lift the federal debt ceiling.
And the big question is: Can the GOP’s members hang together, or will their infighting let the whole country hang?
We’re reminded of Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s warning the day after the State of the Union: “We need to be smart, don’t take the bait,” he said of the members who erupted at President Joe Biden’s various outright lies.
Biden’s going to be tossing lots of bait — indeed, waving red flags in a bid to get the likes of Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz to charge, and so define all Republicans in swing voters’ eyes. Heck, he’s likely to try provoking cannier players like Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, too.
Not to mention making mischief in the GOP race for the ’24 presidential nomination: Remember, Biden’s eager to again face ex-Prez Donald Trump, rather than any less controversial member of Republicans’ rising generation of leaders.
Which means the White House will never let go of the false charge that Republicans are looking to slash Social Security and Medicare immediately, rather than calling for an honest, bipartisan review of how both programs are on now on course for bankruptcy, and thus huge benefit cuts, within a decade.
(Pushing this lie has the added advantage of playing into Trump’s hands, since he’s just as eager to defame sober Republicans to rally his own base.)
More, Biden’s guaranteed to start the budget debate by calling for more new spending programs: Having already deepened the federal debt by $6 trillion in his first two years, he plainly doesn’t give a damn about the bills coming due after he’s safely out of office.
No, he’ll spend the next two years talking about all the wonderful things he wants to do for seniors, students and “working people,” with endless noise about “green jobs,” with not a care in the world about how to pay for any of it — or what a disaster it means for people not yet old enough to vote, let alone the entire America of 2029 or so.
Republicans, he’ll insist, just want to keep you from getting your fair share.
With narrow control of just the House, the GOP can’t force the sort of tough budget cuts that the nation’s fiscal picture should demand. If it tries, too many of its moderate members will be spooked by Dems’ doom-mongering, amplified by most of the media — and cut a deal that keeps the spending spigot wide-open and brings the nation that much closer to becoming a total welfare state.
Speaker McCarthy gets it: So far, he’s talking only about dead-obvious cuts, like rescinding tens of billions in authorized COVID outlays that still haven’t gone out the door, plus ending “temporary” ObamaCare increases and maybe some of Biden’s green boondoggles.
Crucially, he knows Biden can’t actually pass new programs without the House’s assent. Holding GOP members together to shout a united “No!” has to be priority No. 1.
One major hurdle will be setting reasonable expectations for the debt-limit fight. Biden will fight dirty there, too — expect the prez to hold up Social Security checks if it goes on long enough, even when there’s no need: He’ll trust the media will back him up when he says it’s all the GOP’s fault.
Mostly, Republicans in Congress can only expect to win longer-term changes — deals to restrain future spending; maybe a blue-ribbon commission or two charged with laying out the coming crises and suggesting solutions.
If they’re lucky, some mechanism to ensure the government keeps going at reduced spending levels if both sides can’t agree on another one of those obscene “omnibus” bills to prevent a shutdown.
It’ll be a bitter pill for members who know the nation’s better off starting to change course now, but politics is the art of the possible. Shoot for too much more, and you’re just a different part of the problem.