We have Red Sox vs. Rays odds and a prediction, and we’re wondering if the Rays will ever lose again. 

Tampa is the first team since the 1987 Brewers to start a baseball season 11-0.

Those Brewers started the year 13-0, so the Rays are only three wins from history.

And, it’s more than possible.

The Rays are going up against some horrendous starting pitching over the next week, including:

Unfortunately, the Rays’ improbable winning streak has made them overvalued for now. It’s not profitable to bet on the Rays at such inflated numbers.

But I’m also not interested in stepping in front of the Rays. 

Instead, I’m looking toward different markets for betting value.

Moneyline: Red Sox (+105) vs. Rays (-125)

Spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-190) vs. Rays -1.5 (+158)

Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

(6:40 p.m. ET. ESPN+)

When handicapping this game, one main thing stood out:

The Rays mash southpaws. 

Tampa Bay is one of baseball’s best left-handed hitting teams this season (154 wRC+, second) and was an above-average team against the side last year (108 wRC+, 13th). 

Unfortunately, that bodes poorly for Chris Sale, a southpaw whose control and command have dropped considerably over the last few years. 

The elder, injury-prone Sale has made 13 starts since the beginning of 2020, posting a 4.31 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 7.2% walk rate during the small sample size.

His Stuff+ has dropped to a career-low 87 this season, as his sinker-slider mix has lost spin and play.  

Sale is in for a long day, and he already doesn’t like pitching against the Rays – he’s allowed a .392 average and .588 slugging in 54 plate appearances against current Tampa hitters. 

So, how do we fade Sale outside the main markets? 

Under 5.5 strikeouts (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook looks solid. 

The Action Network’s Player Props Tool projects Sale for 5.2 strikeouts on Wednesday, while BallParkPal’s pitcher simulations project him for only 4.4, so there’s value on the under 5.5 number. 

Additionally, a second way to fade Sale is to back one of the Rays that mashes left-handed pitching. 

The switch-hitting Wander Franco is 5-for-7 lifetime off Sale with a triple, a homer, no strikeouts, and a 10% whiff rate. 

Again, Sale’s stuff is declining, while Franco has recorded a hit in nine of his 11 games this season. 

So, I’ll also play Franco over 1.5 total bases (+117) at Caesars Sportsbook, expecting he logs a multi-hit or extra-base-hit game in an excellent matchup. 

I can’t justify value on the side or total in this edition of Red Sox vs. Rays, but I do love the value we’re getting fading Sale in these player prop markets. 

Chris Sale under 5.5 strikeouts (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook

Wander Franco over 1.5 total bases (+117) at Caesars Sportsbook