Five days ago, I told New York Post readers to fade the washed-up Chris Sale by betting on the Minnesota Twins. 

I’m here to face the music: I may have been wrong about Sale. 

Sale responded to my public shaming by posting his best start since 2019, striking out 11 Twins over six one-run innings. 

On Monday, I’m looking to make back the money I lost fading Sale by betting on him to carry momentum into a second consecutive shutdown start. 

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Red Sox (-120) vs. Orioles (+100)

Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+143) vs. Orioles +1.5 (-170)

Total: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115) 

(6:35 p.m. ET)

The Twins are a poor offense, so I don’t want to overrate Sale’s start against them. 

That said, Sale dominated the Twins.

Sale generated an absurd 40% called strike plus whiff rate in the start, inducing 19 swings and misses. 

He also managed his second-highest fastball velocity since 2019 (between 94 and 95 mph) and consistently hit his spots with that patented sweeping slider. 

Essentially, Sale’s stuff looked to be back, which we didn’t see in his first three starts. 

The start could be a one-off, and Sale might get slapped around by the hard-hitting Orioles (who are smashing left-handed pitching this season). 

But Sale still projects as a much-better pitcher than Orioles’ starting pitcher Dean Kremer, who is making his fourth start of 2023. 

Kremer has an ERA and expected ERA north of 6.00, and he has yet to break a 17% strikeout rate since being called up. 

Kremer is working toward becoming an effective pitch-to-contact guy, and his ground-ball rate has increased in recent years. 

Alas, his batted-ball profile is still very poor, as he ranks in the 22nd percentile among qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed.

From a lineup perspective, the matchup is a near wash. The Red Sox and Orioles boast two top-10 lineups, ranking nearly identical in most advanced statistics.

The Orioles have the advantage in the bullpen, but both teams used their relievers heavily over the weekend, so it’s hard to project the latter half of the game. 

Additionally, both defenses are bottom-10 in most advanced fielding metrics. 

So, between two elite lineups, two questionable starting pitchers, two tired bullpens and two bad defenses, you’d think we’d be betting the over. 

Unfortunately, the weather looks too dim to count on consistent run production. Oriole Park should be a pitchers’ park between the cool temperatures (mid-50s) and cross-park winds. 

So, I’ll be banking on the Red Sox’s starting pitching advantage by taking Boston in the first five frames.

If Sale continues to bounce back, he has promise against the Baltimore lineup today. Meanwhile, I don’t see a high ceiling for Kremer. 

I’m willing to buy into Sale’s upside and fade Kremer’s ceiling, so I like the Red Sox F5 ML at the right number.

Boston Red Sox F5 ML (-130, BetMGM)