After the A’s lost 112 games last season, PECOTA set Oakland’s win-total projection for 2024 at 64.8.
Twenty-five games into the season, the A’s (17-18) are on pace to win 79 games.
To say the least, they have exceeded most people’s expectations, but not everything is perfect for the team that has won eight of its last 10 games and sits just 2.5 out of the AL West lead.
Let’s take a closer look at Oakland’s home divisional game against the Rangers on Monday night and make a pick.
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | -138 | -1.5 (+126) | o7.5 (-108) |
| Athletics | +118 | +1.5 (-152) | u7.5 (-112) |
(9:40 p.m. ET)
Oakland’s run differential is minus-23, which suggests that their record is better than their play
The Rangers are averaging 4.69 runs per game, while the A’s — despite being the only team in baseball to score 20 runs in a game this season — are averaging just 3.54 runs, which ranks 28th in MLB.
Neither of Monday’s starters – Texas’ Andrew Heaney or Oakland’s Alex Wood – has been good this season, but I have much more faith in Heaney and the Rangers’ offense.
Simply put, Wood’s regular and advanced stats are ugly.
The 33-year-old lefty has pitched to a 6.32 ERA through seven starts (31 1/3 innings) and has given up multiple runs in six of those.
He’s also given up a homer in five straight games and his 6.10 xERA suggests that this is simply who he is this season.
Woods’ xBA (.295), hard-hit rate (48.0) and average exit velocity (92.1 mph) all rank in the bottom 10% in baseball.
On the other side, Heaney has also underwhelmed, but he did throw seven innings of one-run ball in his most recent start.
The 32-year-old lefty is 0-4 with a 5.10 ERA through six starts this season. His 4.14 xERA isn’t great, but does show that some more favorable results are headed his way.
His average exit velocity (91.5 mph) ranks in the seventh percentile, which is concerning, but Heaney’s chase rate is in the 63rd percentile, so perhaps he can get Oakland’s hitters to venture outside the zone.
Both starters are far from elite, and while that initially had me looking toward the over, I don’t trust Oakland’s offense. And the Coliseum isn’t exactly pitcher-friendly.
Take the Rangers, who have both the better offense and starting pitcher in this game.